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<br /> <br /> <br /> <br />r <br />1 <br /> <br /> <br />1 <br />t <br />1 <br />1 <br /> <br />1 <br /> <br />1 <br /> <br />7 <br />The impacts due to actions taken on behalf of endangered fishes are calculated by comparing the <br />level of economic activity without such actions to the level of activity with such actions. Thus, it <br />is necessary to begin with a projection of the economic activity in the region for the study period. <br />The Bureau of Economics Analysis (BEA) regional projections data were used to construct the <br />"without fish baseline" (WOFBA) scenario through 2040. This was used as a basis of <br />comparison with the total impacts from adjustments for the endangered fishes. The impacts were <br />evaluated in five-year periods, starting in the year 2000 and continuing through 2040.8 In each <br />case, the economy was assumed to grow at the rate implied by the BEA regional projections. <br />This growth was assumed to occur from a baseline that is the result of the previous period's <br />levels of economic activity after the impacts due to adjustments for the endangered fishes. Thus, <br />in each period, the comparison is between the level of activity that would have existed following <br />the impacts of the previous period and the projected growth rates, versus the level of activity <br />with the endangered fishes actions taken in that period. This approach provides a time path that <br />is characterized by somewhat discrete changes as opposed to continuous changes. The resulting <br />time path is, however, a fair representation of the impacts associated with endangered fishes <br />actions. <br />C. Method of Impact Analysis <br />The I-O model used in this study is essentially a demand-side model.' The usual way to <br />introduce impacts in such models is through a vector of changes in final demands. In effect, the <br />impacts are represented as a reduction in the regional demand for the output of the sector that <br />experiences a direct impact. The reduction in final demand leads to declines in the level of <br />output, employment, and wages in the directly affected and all remaining sectors. This type of <br />impact is not appropriate for the agricultural sector, however. The impacts in that sector are due <br />to allocating the water elsewhere (species preservation) which is a direct supply impact: the <br />s Interim years, e.g., 2002, 2003, 2014, 2037 are obtained by linear interpolation. <br />9 Impacts are entered into the model as changes in final demands in the sectors studied in the analysis. <br />20 <br />1