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1 <br />1 <br />quantity of output is reduced in the agricultural sector due to restrictions on the supply of a key <br />' input. For this reason, a mixed modeling approach was used in which the agricultural impacts <br />are generated through a supply-side shock that generates an exogenous change in the level of <br />output in the agriculture sector. The direct impacts in the remaining sectors are modeled as the <br />more typical final demand changes.10 <br />The "with fish" scenario includes four sets of direct impacts: <br />' 1. Construction of Water Delivery Projects - In the baseline projection for the 10-county <br />region several water delivery projects are constructed and water is delivered (NIIP, ALP, <br />SJ-C). Supplying instream water for the fishes may require that some of these projects be <br />foregone and some modified. The consequence is that the volume of water available for <br />agricultural uses will be reduced, and the level of activity in the construction sectors will <br />decline. <br />2. Electric Power Impacts - Providing flows for the endangered fishes has implications <br />' for the production of electric power at the Navajo Dam. Power production will decline <br />during the peak period, and the city of Farmington will be have to purchase power from <br />the grid at a higher cost. <br />1 <br /> <br /> <br />1 <br /> <br />3. Agriculture Impacts - Water will not be available for use in irrigation since some of <br />the projected water delivery projects will be canceled or modified. The total volume of <br />irrigated acres will be reduced as compared to the baseline projections. <br />4. Recreation Impacts - Impacts to recreation move in both directions. Some water <br />projects which include reservoir-based recreation will be forgone. This foregone <br />"See Miller and Blair (1985) (pp. 325-327) for a discussion of such modeling methods. <br /> <br />21 <br />