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1 1 1 The final sub-task in Task 3 will be the determination of induced growth assumptions. BBC will look at forecasting model alternatives and select one which best fits the needs of this study. The selected model will produce induced employment multipliers and link economic changes to demographic growth. The workscope and budget proposed here do not assume the development of a new economic or demographic forecasting model, presuming that satisfactory existing models already exist. The last sub-task in Task 3 will be the development of water demand factors. We will look at water use characteristics per unit of output and develop assumptions for long term forecasts. We do not envision a complicated study. We will look at trends up or down in water use per unit (i.e. per capita, per employee, per kilowatt hour, etc.). We will also identify any published studies which suggest that technology or conservation or other influences will substantially change current water use factors. Unless strong evidence is found otherwise, we will likely adopt current use patterns. Task 4. Solicit Input from Knowledgeable Sources The project team will seek information and guidance kom business interests, government officials and the public. We expect to meet with individuals knowledgeable about each of the basic industries. Federal land managers and their staff can offer considerable insight about how their resources might be used or developed. County and other local government officials will be interviewed about land use as well as the demand projections and development potential indicated from Tasks 2 and 3. ' BBC anticipates leading three public meetings during the course of this study. At least one will be in Steamboat and one will be in Craig. We will anticipate certain logistical help from the River District in setting up these meetings. Among other items to review at those meetings, we will seek insights about growth limitation over the short and long term. The advice, guidance and direction we receive in this task will help us balance resource development potential with the demand projections in developing the final projections we will offer to the recovery program. Task 5. Development of Projections and Final Report, Client Meetings BBC will develop projections based upon all of the foregoing tasks. These projections will include year 2020 and 2045 population and economic projections and water demand projections for the Yampa River Basin. One set of projections will seek a balance between resource development potential (Task 2), associated demand projections (Task 3), and current views about growth and how the Yampa River Basin might realistically evolve. Conversely, it might be useful to depict other scenarios which examine ultimate resource potential or alternative views and assumptions related to the demand projections. Up to three scenarios might be provided, with the decision on the number of scenarios to be determined during the later stages of the project. BBC will develop a draft report which documents the information resources, the analytical approach, inputs from various parties and the results of the study. Following review and comments received on the draft, 50 final reports will be prepared and delivered to the River District. 1 1 The workscope and budget assume three meetings with the client group on the Western Slope plus one meeting with the recovery program group. Representatives of the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Colorado Department of Natural Resources and the River District will attend the client group meetings during which interim study results and project decisions will be discussed. BBC anticipates timely response in terms of review of materials and input to decisions affecting the course of the study or key assumptions. BBC Research & Consulting 1 - 3