9606

• UCREFRP Catalog Number: 9606
• Author: BBC Research and Consulting.
• Title: Yampa River Basin Water Needs Study.
• USFW Year: 1996.
• USFW - Doc Type: Denver, CO.
• Copyright Material: NO

This task will produce a current profile of economic and demographic variables and
water uses. We will focus on those economic and demographic variables which relate most
closely to water use. For example, employment might be an appropriate measure for retail
service and other non-basic sectors, but coal energy and recreation water demands might be
better expressed with other activity measures such as units of output or visitor days.
Task 2. Examine Resource Development Potential
The first sub-task here will be to identify and describe the basic industries, and the
' resources necessary to those industries, which might influence future economic activity in the
Yampa River Basin. Coal energy and recreation have been important sectors in the past, but
others may emerge and grow over the long term. Characterizing the underlying resources to
support current and potential future industries will be a key element of this sub-task. The
ultimate size of an industry may be limited by the amount of available resources and the
technology which exists to support the industry in its development.
L The second sub-task will be to estimate carrying capacities of the land in the Yampa
River Basin. The land characteristics, including whether or not it is irrigable or developable,
will factor into the carrying capacity analysis.
' This task will focus on physical development potential, not the various policy
and/or market factors which might limit or constrain basic industry development. Public
policy, including the desires of the population or policymakers to limit growth, will be
' explored in Task 5. Of course, development potential will also be constrained by the
demand for that basic resource or industry situated in the Yampa River Basin; this will be
the focus of Task 3.
1 Task 3. Prepare Unconstrained Basic Industry Demand Projections
This sub-task will separately examine the development prospects for all of the basic
industries identified in Task 2. The focus will be on year 2020 and year 2045 projections of
each activity as determined by external economic forces.
Coal development will receive particular emphasis in our research. Power demand
forecasts for the region will be obtained from the Western Reliability Council or other reliable
source suggested by CREDA, WAPA or PS Co. Given air quality guidelines under the new
Clean Air Act Amendments, prospects for further development must be scrutinized despite
recent revelations about the source of the haze near Craig. Deregulation of the power
industry may be the most important impetus of all for further Yampa Basin coal
development. Prospects for coal conversion into other fossil fuel forms will also be
examined.
Ski industry and other tourism and recreational development prospects will also be
examined. The focus will not be on short term developments such as Catamount, but long
term growth possibilities for skiing, tourism and recreation. Demographics, preferences and
leisure time are examples of forces which may drive expansion in these activities. BBC has
1 considerable experience in this sector in Routt County. We will also examine other basic
industry sectors. Agricultural shifts, trends and prospects will be examined. A recent
phenomenon throughout many western regions, including the Yampa River Basin, has been
the in-migration of retirees and others seeking a better quality of life. We will assess trends
and examine readily available studies to evaluate the long term prospects of this source of
new residents.

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