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<br />Another sector for which the possibility of offsetting effects outside the region is important is the <br />recreation services sector. If recreation opportunities are reduced within the Colorado River <br />Basin region it may be that there are substitute activities that will be undertaken outside the <br />region. TI1is is, again, an excess capacity argument. The extent to which recreation substitutes <br />are available is debatable. We present here an analysis whereby the recreation resources in the <br />Basin are assumed to be unique and the loss of these recreation opportunities cannot be replaced <br />within the U.S. economy. The results are only slightly different if this assumption does not hold. <br /> <br />To select the most likely scenario for the future would involve detailed projections for these <br />sectors and such projections are not available. All additions to thermal generation capacity <br />require the withdrawal of resources from elsewhere. The net result is a direct impact of zero for <br />the construction and combined manufacturing sectors. The true situation most likely lies in <br />between these polar cases, by presenting these extremes, the bounds on the actual outcome arc <br />provided. The solution is to construct a set of scenarios which provide boundary estimates of the <br />overall economic effects. <br /> <br />Two polar scenarios related to the direct regional impacts projected for 1995 regarding thermal <br />facilities are reported. <br /> <br />Scenario A: There exists sufficient underutilized capacity in the construction and <br />capital equipment sectors (within the Basin or elsewhere in the national economy) <br />that all additions to thermal electric capacity are a net positive addition to the <br />level of national economic activity. The recreation resources within the Basin are <br />unique and the loss of these recreation opportunities cannot be replaced within the <br />U.S. economy. <br /> <br />Scenario B: There is no underutilized capacity in the construction and capital <br />equipment sectors (within the Basin or elsewhere in the national economy) and all <br />additions to the thermal electric capacity within the Basin are constructed with <br /> <br />36 <br />