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presented to the Climate Technical Advisory Group on June 11, 2008 will be adopted for <br />this work. That suggested approach will use the VIC model developed for research work <br />in the Colorado River Basin along with a "differencing" approach whereby existing <br />StateMod and CRSS naturalized flows are adjusted to reflect flow changes estimated by <br />hydrologic modeling to occur due to projected changes in climate. <br />7.6 Sub-Basin Scal_in~ - Identify methods and available data to obtain climate projections <br />that are dawnscaled to a level appropriate for development of alternative hydrology at the <br />sub-basin scale used by StateMod. At this time we expect that the available Statistically <br />Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections will be adequate for this purpose and <br />will be directly useable. Our cost estimate is based on this expectation. Work in this <br />subtask will involve development of GIS and data management methods to use the <br />Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections. <br />7.7 Methods for Alternate Hydrology_and Water Use - Prepare data and coded methods to <br />generate traces of alternate hydrology and water use using the method selected in <br />subtasks 7.4 and 7.5 and downscaled climate projections developed or obtained in <br />subtask 7.6. We anticipate that the development of alternate hydrology for climate <br />change will also use methods developed in subtask 6.4 and 6.5. Because of the effect of <br />changes in temperature on the annual hydrograph, the selected method will have to <br />generate new naturalized inflows, either at key gage sites or at selected StateMod inflow <br />points. In addition, new temperature and precipitation projections will be generated. <br />Therefore, the selected method may require distribution of projected streamflaw at key <br />points to baseflow stream gage points (*.xbf file} and the use of StateMod/baseflows to <br />develop complete baseflow data sets (*.xbm files), and will require the use of StateCU <br />and StateDMl to develop alternate irrigation demands. Our cost estimate assumes that <br />the approach presented to the Climate Technical Advisory Group on June 11, 2008 will <br />be used. The cost estimate assumes that the refinement of the calibration of the VIC <br />model can be accomplished in a total of 260 hours of effort at a blended rate of <br />$1361hour. <br />7.8 Climate Projection Selection -Identify median range of climate projections far study. A <br />range of climate projections will be selected to be used as the basis far scenarios of future <br />water availability. Conduct a literature review and evaluation of the approaches to <br />selecting or weighting climate projections for use in vulnerability and adaptation <br />analyses. In this evaluation particular attention will be given to adopting an approach <br />consistent with the approach being developed by the Front Range Vulnerability Study. <br />Submit the suggested approach to CWCB for review and meet with CWCB staff and the <br />CCTAG to discuss the recommendation. Based on comments from CWCB prepare a <br />final recommendation for an approach to identifying a range of scenarios. The cost <br />estimate assumes that only one review cycle will be required and that the modifications <br />will not involve the substantial elements of the method. The FRVS is currently <br />considering an approach that uses five climate projections to describe the range of <br />projected conditions. For purposes of cost estimating we have assumed that up to 10 <br />climate projections will be used to describe conditions at two future time frames (e.g. <br />2040, 2070}. This means that 20 climate change scenarios will be evaluated, along with <br />Colorado River Water Availability Study Scnpe 2l 8/28/2048 <br />CRWAS Phasel Contract Scope EX A Final <br />