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one scenario representing extended historical hydrology. In addition, up to three <br />sensitivity analyses representing the impact of forest change will be analyzed. In <br />subsequent descriptions these are referred to as the selected scenarios. <br />7.9 Effects of Climate Chan e an U er Colorado River Basin H drolo -Investigate the <br />effects of selected scenarios on Upper Colorado River Basin Hydrology. Using data and <br />methods developed in subtasks 6.5 and 7.7, develop ensembles of alternate streamflaw at <br />the 29 inflow points used in the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation CRSS model. This task will <br />generate an ensemble of natural flows for use in the USBR CRSS model in Subtask 8.3. <br />The CRSS natural flows will be consistent with natural flows developed in subtasks 6.5 <br />and 7.7. Currently, the natural flaws used by CRSS do not agree exactly with aggregated <br />natural flaws used in StateMod. As directed by CWCB, we will either adopt aggregated <br />StateMod adjusted flows developed in subtasks 6.5 and 7.7 for inflow points within <br />Colorado, or apply the~same adjustments to CRSS natural flows as are applied to <br />StateMod flows in subtasks 6.5 and 7.7. Summarize the effect of the selected scenarios <br />on the hydrology of the Upper Colorado River Basin. <br />7.10 Alternate Hydrology and Tem erature and Precipitation Data Sets - Prepare an ensemble <br />of traces of alternative hydrology suitable far use in StateMod using the methods <br />developed in subtasks 6.5 and 7.7 for the selected scenarios. Prepare an ensemble of <br />traces of projected temperature and precipitation suitable for use m StateCU for the <br />selected scenarios. <br />7.11 CDSS Automation, Testin and Application. -Incorporate projected temperature and <br />precipitation data into historical StateCU models and re-run for the selected scenarios in <br />each of the five CDSS basins. Because 20 new StateCU scenarios in each basin are <br />manageable, no data-automation beyond existing command files will be developed. The <br />StateCU irrigation water requirement results will be used to generate new irrigation <br />demands {*.ddm). Again, because there are only 20 new scenarios, no automation is <br />required beyond the use of the existing StateDMI command files. <br />The data-centered automation tools developed in Subtask b.6 will be used to develop <br />StateMod input files, execute the models, and generate output far the selected scenarios. <br />The graphical output will be used to provide big picture checks of the output from the <br />StateMod models. Further analyses and characterization of the results of the StateMod <br />simulations using TSToaI will be documented in a task memorandum, including tabular <br />and graphical results far groups of alternate hydrologic scenarios. Again, it is possible <br />that particularly dry sequences associated with climate change may not allow StateMod <br />to maintain mass balance. Any unsuccessful simulations will be noted and summarized <br />for the StateMod programmer to review. <br />7.12 Summarize Alternate Hydrolo~y - Perform diagnostic statistical analyses on the <br />ensemble of traces of alternate hydrology and water uses, including analyses of the <br />statistics of water use and annual flows and the statistics of draughts and wet spells. <br />These analyses will provide information that allows comparison of the climate change <br />water use and hydrology with statistics of the observed water use-and hydrology, far the <br />Colorado River Water Availability Study Scope 22 8/28/2008 <br />CRWAS Phasel Contract Scope EX A Final <br />