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870 JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY VOLUME 17
<br />programs will be more expensive than existing ones
<br />and users should, in their own interest, pay the price
<br />to reap the full, long -term benefits of weather
<br />modification.
<br />3. Suggested cotirses of action
<br />a. Technology assessment
<br />Operational application of weather modification,
<br />whether warranted or not, has revealed a number of
<br />user - oriented issues, some perceived and some real,
<br />that are as important as the traditional scientific
<br />issues if not overriding. Weather modification, whether
<br />it be research or operations, will not progress wisely
<br />or perhaps at all, unless it is considered in a context
<br />that includes everyone that may be affected. We must
<br />develop and promote a new public and scientific
<br />image of weather modification.
<br />It is my opinion that the fastest and most effective
<br />way of achieving a new perspective for weather modi-
<br />fication is by means of a comprehensive technology
<br />assessment. Technology assessment is a method of
<br />systematically exploring the direct and indirect con-
<br />sequences of employing an emerging technology.
<br />Several technological scenarios are usually followed,
<br />from conservative to optimistic, so the value of ad-
<br />ditional scientific advancement is determined. It ex-
<br />amines both the technology's impact on society and
<br />society's impact on the development of the technology.
<br />If focuses on all key issues, both perceived and real.
<br />It does not necessarily answer all questions but does
<br />identify the important questions that must be
<br />answered.
<br />A well- conceived, comprehensive technology assess-
<br />ment of precipitation management will provide the
<br />factual information to shape anew and proper image
<br />for weather modification. It will place the benefits,
<br />risks- and disbenefits in proper perspective and,
<br />thereby, allow the public, users and decision makers
<br />to make informed judgments concerning its develop-
<br />ment and application rather than being ruled by
<br />unfounded fears. It will confront and clarify such key
<br />issues as liability, compensation of disbeneficiaries,
<br />water rights, environmental effects, etc. A fine example
<br />of such a technology assessment is the one developed
<br />for hail suppression which stated as one of its public
<br />policy recommendations, "We recommend that a na-
<br />tional technology assessment study on the modification
<br />of precipitation be conducted. Based on our findings
<br />that rainfall effects were more important than hail
<br />effects in economic and socio - political impact, we feel
<br />strongly that a technology assessment on precipitation
<br />modification is needed" (Changnon et at., 1977). The
<br />technology assessment on the modification of precipi-
<br />tation will, of course, be more complex than that for
<br />hail suppression because of its greater importance
<br />and impact on society and, for those reasons, it must
<br />be done.
<br />Scientifically upgraded operational programs
<br />As I mentioned before, operational programs, if
<br />property conducted, can be a source of scientific
<br />learning and technique development as well as poten-
<br />tial economic benefit. Each operational program should
<br />include two basic ingredients: 1) the proper personnel
<br />and equipment to execute the seeding technique and
<br />2) a standard set of basic measurements by which to
<br />assess the effects of seeding. While more costly than
<br />presently conducted operational programs, it is in the
<br />users' best interest to upgrade the quality of their
<br />programs. They will attract more knowledgeable and
<br />experienced scientists, improve the efficiency of their
<br />operation, improve feedback to research and further
<br />development, and in a larger sense maximize the future
<br />return on their investment.
<br />The first set of ingredients is already within the
<br />power of most responsible commercial operators who,
<br />I am sure, would make them available if the market
<br />would bear it. As I pointed out before, weather modi-
<br />fication is complex and the tools for its execution
<br />should be commensurate with its complexity. If the
<br />user community can be made to realize this fact,
<br />I am confident they will pay for it. The higher price
<br />of operations may result in fewer programs but they
<br />would be more productive. It might also make it
<br />more difficult for submarginal operators to ply their
<br />trade.
<br />The second set pf ingredients is more difficult to
<br />specify but is equally important. I am not, and I em-
<br />phasize not, necessarily calling for randomized seeding
<br />operations. I am encouraged by the recent National
<br />Science Foundation grant to the Illinois State Water
<br />Survey to develop techniques for assessing the ef-
<br />fectiveness of nonrandomized experiments. I am eagerly
<br />looking to this work to provide guidelines for a stan-
<br />dard minimum set of appropriate measurements. It
<br />should, however, be understood that the assessment
<br />of results obtained in this manner will take longer
<br />in years and be lower in confidence than the evaluation
<br />of results obtained through randomization. It is,
<br />nevertheless, imperative to take this important step
<br />in assessing operational programs in order to maintain
<br />and expand taxpayer trust, safeguard the profes-
<br />sionalism of the operations and expand our base of
<br />scientific information.
<br />Both the American Meteorological Society and
<br />Weather Modification Association can play an im-
<br />portant role in establishing the above - mentioned
<br />standards.
<br />c. Funding
<br />No commentary on the needs of weather modifica-
<br />tion would be complete unless it included some mention
<br />of funding. Traditionally we ask for an expansion of
<br />research support that is commensurate with the mag-
<br />
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