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JUNE 1978 BERNARD A. SILVERMAN 869
<br />Diversity of opinion is healthy for a developing
<br />science as long as it is constructive. It should, however,
<br />be realized that research and operations are not
<br />mutually exclusive activities. Rather, they can and
<br />must proceed together, interacting with each other
<br />and with the society it is meant to serve if we are
<br />to develop a technology that is acceptable both
<br />scientifically and socially.
<br />Users of weather modification are shrewd business
<br />people. They understand that they are, in many cases,
<br />taking a gamble when they use weather modification,
<br />but it is no greater risk than they take in other aspects
<br />of their business. Operational weather modification
<br />will, therefore, proceed, and by proceeding on this
<br />basis it provides an opportunity for learning and
<br />progress that cannot otherwise be achieved. Working
<br />with the user community we can investigate aspects
<br />of the emerging technology that cannot be realistically
<br />studied in research programs. We can investigate the
<br />societal and political issues of weather modification
<br />which, in the final analysis, will decide the true fate
<br />of weather modification. We can investigate and
<br />develop the institutional framework for incorporating
<br />precipitation management into the overall water re-
<br />sources management policy of each climatic and
<br />socioeconomic region, recognizing and accommodating
<br />the needs and rights of all who are affected. Several
<br />states are already doing this under the Bureau of
<br />Reclamation's HIPLEX program.
<br />If properly structured, operational programs can
<br />also contribute to scientific development, and, in a
<br />subsequent section, I will suggest how this might be
<br />done. Research programs must, at the same time,
<br />improve on our understanding of how, when and
<br />where to apply these techniques and develop overall
<br />scientific confidence in them. Research alone can
<br />develop a technique but research in concert with
<br />operations and its ramifications is needed to develop
<br />a technology. If users are willing to risk application
<br />of a scientifically unproven technology in the strictest
<br />sense, scientists should attempt to maximize the
<br />learning potential of the effort.
<br />c. The oversimplistic image
<br />A major source of friction between researchers and
<br />operators which fuels the fire of diversity is the image
<br />of weather modification operations that has developed
<br />which makes it appear that cloud seeding techniques
<br />are simple and inexpensive to apply with probable
<br />success. This image of simplicity is, to a large extent,
<br />conveyed by the structure of most operational pro-
<br />grams which usually consist of ground or airborne
<br />seeding systems, non - quantitative radar (or no radar
<br />at all) mainly for directing aircraft, and operationally
<br />trained, but not necessarily meteorologically trained,
<br />personnel.
<br />Most programs are launched with no provision for
<br />reliable evaluation or feedback. Some are directed at
<br />both hail suppression and rain augmentation and give
<br />the appearance of being able to switch from one to
<br />the other by a mere change in seeding rate. The
<br />results of research, on the other hand, indicate that
<br />weather modification is a complex science.
<br />There is growing support for the thesis that the
<br />seeding of clouds may at different times result in
<br />positive, negative or no effect and that there is in-
<br />sufficient confidence in our ability to determine when
<br />and under what circumstances each will occur. It has
<br />been shown that rain and hail are integral and inter-
<br />related components of the precipitation process of
<br />cloud systems and that you cannot affect one without
<br />affecting the other, but there is conflicting evidence
<br />on the nature and sign of these effects. There is also
<br />increasing recognition of the fact that promising, or
<br />even proven, techniques may not be readily trans-
<br />ferable from one area to another, even over small
<br />distances. And we are only beginning to investigate
<br />and understand the size of the area affected by cloud
<br />seeding.
<br />I am confident that commercial operators are and
<br />have been aware of the complexities of their trade
<br />and do not believe that the application of weather
<br />modification is simple. What, then, has given rise to
<br />and acts to perpetuate the image of simplicity?
<br />I believe that four related factors have contributed
<br />to the problem:
<br />1) The commercial and scientific communities have
<br />allowed the submarginal operators, who are better
<br />salesmen then scientists, to establish the market price
<br />and standards for the industry. The responsible
<br />operators have, therefore, had to compromise between
<br />what they believe is necessary and what the market
<br />would bear in order to be competitive.
<br />2) A major casualty of this compromise has been
<br />evaluation, which could have provided the necessary
<br />feedback to rectify the situation.
<br />3) Given the relatively low price of operations,
<br />many more potential users have been willing to take
<br />the gamble, most of them believing that the only
<br />outcomes of their gamble are either positive or no
<br />effect.
<br />4) The scientific community has not provided the
<br />convincing evidence that any more than was already
<br />being done was really needed. They have, in general,
<br />been critical of operations or at best aloof, when
<br />constructive suggestions and support were needed.
<br />I believe that operational programs should proceed
<br />with the input and support of the scientific com-
<br />munity. There are some weather modification tech-
<br />niques, although imperfect, that can be applied
<br />operationally in the proper context not only for
<br />potential economic benefits but also to increase
<br />scientific understanding. These programs must use
<br />the appropriate tools and skilled manpower. Such
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