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<br />-iii- <br /> <br />PREFACE <br /> <br />The problems of exploring weather modification and of confirming or failing to confirm <br />that, for instance, rainfall has been increased, are very difficult ones. High variability of undis- <br />turbed behavior, scattered opportunities that are judged suitable for intervention, influence on <br />experimental results of subjective judgments, varying changes from treatments, impacts on peo- <br />ple in the areas of experimentation, and the importance of even small net effer,ts -- these are as <br />uncomfortable a collection of characteristics as oui' culture has been able to assemble in any <br />situation that is subject to experimental confirmation. As a result, the classic British maxim <br />that "not only must justice be done, but it must be seen to be done" bites with unusual force, <br />The consequent need for high standards of care, access for the scientific public to details, and <br />vigorous control of subjectivity may well seem a troublesome and uncomfortable strai~ja(:ket to <br />those involved in the conduct of the experiments, We would be happy if statistical concepts <br />and/or statisticians could help to relax these straitjackets -- but they cannot do this. As a <br />result, the standards and operational procedures we outline cannot be either comfortabk or easy <br />to meet, something we regret, but judge to be inevitable. <br /> <br />Weather modification experimentation began in a glow of "all we have to do is this -- and <br />the result will be obvious to everyone", Today it has reached a modest standard of can~f\JI exe- <br />cution, with some internal checks; it needs to become one of the most careful efforts of our <br />society, <br /> <br />The body of this, the report of the Weather Modification Advisory Board's statisltical task <br />force, goes through the broader consequences of this situation, leaving some details to the <br />appendix, <br /> <br />At the Board's suggestion the summaries for specific projects prepared by Drs. Brier, <br />Mielke and Biondini are not included in this volume. It is hoped that they will be made avail- <br />able through the Office of Science and Academic Affairs of NOAA. Without the ef.forts put <br />forth by, and the accumulated knowledge of, Glenn Brier, Paul Mielke, and Ronald Biondini <br />we could not possibly have found the time to do an adequate job of preparing this: report. <br /> <br />We thank the Board, particularly Joanne Simpson and Robert Elliott, for their helpful <br />comments. Professors Jerzy Neyman and Elizabeth Scott were most helpful in provid.ing both <br />general and specific comments based on their long experience. Also we have been grateful to <br />others with whom the issues in this report have been discussed during the course of its plrepara- <br />tion, Without the devoted assistance of Mary Bittrich, the job could not have bee:n completed. <br /> <br />Statistical Task Force, <br />David R. Brillinger <br />Lyle V. Jones <br />John W. Tukey, Chairman <br />