WMOD00464

• Title: The Management of Weather Resources - Volume II
• Prepared For: The Weather Modification Advisory Board
• Date: 6/30/1978
• Weather Modification - Doc Type: Report

- ii -

To help us think clearly about the role of statistics in weather resources management, the
Board asked a trio of outstanding scholars to review the published results and assess the metho-
dologies of some of the more recently-conducted field experiments in weather modification, and
to suggest guidelines for the statistical design of future field experiments,

Their analysis, including their helpful distinction between "exploratory" and
"confirmatory" experiments, is reflected in our Final Report. The Board's own judgments do
not always follow the statistical findings to their ultimate inconclusiveness; it was our obliga-
tion to consider also a wider range of experiments, of physical insights, and of social impact
that a strict assessment of statistical results from some of the recent projects made possible,

But our Statistical Task Force's work is so relevant to the Board's findings, and its
prescription for the design of field experiments so useful to the future of weather resources
management, that our Board decided to publish as a technical annex the Full Report to the
Board from Messrs, John Tukey, Lyle Jones and David Brillinger. We express to them, and to
the staff group they assembled to assist in their work, a profound gratitude for tackling with
such energy and skill so complex and difficult a task in so short a time, and producing so valu-
able a product.

Harlan Cleveland, Chairman
Weather Modification Advisory Board

June 30, 1978