WMOD00464

• Title: The Management of Weather Resources - Volume II
• Prepared For: The Weather Modification Advisory Board
• Date: 6/30/1978
• Weather Modification - Doc Type: Report

- iv .

CONTENTS

Foreword..............,............... .....,............... .,..............................................................,........i

Preface...............................................,.............,.......................................................... .....iii

A. SELECTED ISSUES...... ..... ,. ,......,..... ,... ..... ...... ......... .......... ......................... .......A-1

1. Basic ideas........ .................... ......,.,......,.................... ............. .......... ............ .A-1

randomization....... ......................... ........... .......... ....... ......... ............. ..A-1

exploratory /confirmatory /piggyback .................... ................. ....... ......A-1

2. Quality data........... .................... ........."......................... .........,...., ............. ..A-2 '
blindness of judgment......... ,........,.. ...... .... ..... ... ,.....,.. ,. ..... ................ .A-2
oversight and auditing..... .......,....., ........ ........ ...... ..... ...... ............ ........A-2
parallel analysis and deprivacy .... ....... ............ ...... ............... ............ ...A-3

data management ..,.. .......;. ........ ...,. ............. .... .... ..... ................ .... ......A-4

cost and value...... ............ ............. ........... .......... ........... ...... ...... ....... ..A-4

3. Structure of experimentation.. ............... ............. ............... ................ ....... ..A-4
purposes of exploratory phases ......................... ........ ........... ......... .....A-4
exploration by separation.................................................................. .A-4
ongoing modifications........................................................................A-5

parallel exploration...................................................,........................ .A-6
the transition to confirmation............................................................A-7
.. _ ~l!fter-the-fact analysis.........................................................................A - 7

4.1....~ Strategic Issues~.. ....... ................ ...... ................ .............. ..... ...... ........... .....A- 7
better covariates... ........... ............. ........... ...... ................,.. ......,. ......... ..A- 7
overwhelming instances.....................................................................A-8

5. Critical tactical issues... ........ ........ ........ .......... .... ................... ............ ..... .....A-8
blindness vs. blocking...................................................................... ..A-8
focusing vs. dispersal....... ............. ......... ........ ....... ......................... ....A-9
problems of analysis........................................................................ .A-1 o.

6. Kinds of grounds for criticism ..................................................................A-10

B. EVALUATIONS OF RECENT PROJECTS ........................................................B-1

7. Skeletal descriptions................................................................................... .B-1
Florida area cumulus experiment ................. ...................... ............ ....B. 1
National hail research experiment ......... ............... ......... ..... ............ ....B-1
Colorado River Basin pilot project.................................................... ..B-1
Israeli cloud seeding experiment 1I....................................................B-1

Alberta hail project .................. .... ........... ....... ........................ ......... ....B-2

Santa Barbara rain experiment II...................................................... ..B- 2
South Africa hail suppression program.. ................ ............... ......... .....B-2
North Dakota Pilot Project............................................................. ....B-2

Tasmania....................................... ,........ .................................. ..... .....B-2

8. Dangers of subjective influences .................................................................B-3

FACE............................................,................................................... .B-3

NHRE........ ........... .... ................... ..... ,....... ............ ..... ......... ... .............B-4

Colorado River Basin......................................................................... .B-4

Israeli II .............................................................................................. B-4

Alberta hail........................................................................................ .B-4

Santa Barbara II.......................... ...................... ....... ............ ........ ...... .B-4
South Africa hail.............................................................................. ..B-4

North Dakota..................................................................................... .B-5