Laserfiche WebLink
<br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />The forecast will guide the resear'ch effort. It will allow more <br />efficient utilization of personnel in data collection, better scheduli ng <br />of equipment maintenance, and better scheduling of time-off. The impact <br />of the forecasts will be mainly on events more than 6 hr in the future. <br />Current weather will be relied on for short-term operational planning. <br />In particular, real-time local and GOES satellite observations of <br />weather will govern whether and when to activate instrumentation and <br /> <br /> <br />gather data. <br /> <br /> <br />Three variables will be forecast. First, the probability will be <br /> <br /> <br />given of significant cloud cover (i.e., a STORM) commencing in the next <br /> <br /> <br />6, 12, 24, 36, and 48 hr. A confidencl~ level will be attached to each <br /> <br /> <br />probability. The forecast of a STORM will affect existing or future <br /> <br /> <br />research operations. As already noted si~~nificant cloud cover means any <br /> <br /> <br />cloud having a nonzero probability of producing precipitation on the <br /> <br /> <br />Tushar Mtns. As a minimum this means a broken or overcast layer of <br /> <br /> <br />altostratus or altocumulus or lower-level cloud. Excluded are cirrus, <br /> <br /> <br />cirrocumulus, and cirrostratus clouds. Fog is not significant cloud <br /> <br /> <br />cover, although when it exists a determination as to whether there is <br /> <br /> <br />higher cloud will be made from satellite imagery, with a special rawin- <br /> <br /> <br />sonde launch from Adamsville, or by visual observations from an elevated <br /> <br /> <br />position in the Tushar Mtns. The forecclst of significant cloud cover of <br /> <br />the "blanket" orographic type is particularly critical. These clouds <br /> <br /> <br />come under the heading of 0 PET (see Appendix A) and contribute a large <br /> <br /> <br />share of the precipitation over the TushClr Mtns. The forecast of such <br /> <br /> <br />clouds may be difficult to make on the basis of only the synoptic data <br /> <br />received in the NAWC Salt Lake City office. Local conditions in the <br /> <br />research area will thus be important for forecasting this type of cloud. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />-23- <br />