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<br />- 4 - <br /> <br />Tom Lev. Chief Hvdro2raoher. Division of Water Resources <br />. Division 1- No flooding concerns except for the north end of South Park. <br />. Division 2 - No potential threats. In Canon City there is no low level snowpack and therefore no <br />risk of high runoff. <br />. Division 3 - No flooding concerns. <br />. Division 4 - No flooding concerns. <br />. Division 5 - Reports are predicting that there is enough runoff potential in the Frying Pan River <br />to fill Ruedi Reservoir twice. The management of the reservoir will be the key. There is a greater <br />than 100% snowpack above Dillon Reservoir, which is already full. The Blue River Basin <br />should see a significant amount of runoff. <br />. Division 6 - Craig has been experiencing local flooding all spring. A levee was breached along <br />the Yampa River near Craig. The construction detour near Elkhead Reservoir was closed due to <br />high runoff. The White River may be a cause for concern also, as it has been running very high, <br />and there is still plenty of snowpack in its headwaters. <br />. Division 7 - No flooding concern. There are low snowpack levels near Pagosa Springs. North <br />of Durango the average snowpack levels are 80-90% of normal. <br /> <br />National Weather Service - short term weather forecast (Treste Huse) <br />. Treste Ruse, the Service hydrologist for the National Weather Service (Boulder office) provided <br />the update. She presented the current weather system map and identified the movement of the <br />low pressure zones over a two week period. There were two pressure systems over Idaho and <br />California that will combine and move toward Colorado. The atmosphere is very saturated right <br />now. On Friday night there will be a weak, shallow upslope flow on the east slope, north ofI-70 <br />that will cause showers. <br /> <br />NOAA - Climate Dia2nostics Center (Klaus Wolter) <br />Forecasts from Klaus Wolter can be found at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/SWcasts. <br />More weather forecasts are to be completed by May lih and can be seen on Klaus' website. <br />. In April the La Nina collapsed, however it isn't completely gone. The Multivariate EI Nino <br />Southern Oscillation Index or MEI Index is still at -0.5. There is much uncertainty as to if La <br />Nina will occur. <br />. Using 20 modeling scenarios % go toward an EI Nino trend and the other half drift back to La <br />Nina. <br />. There won't be a heat wave yet, but continued dry conditions are likely through the summer. <br />. Since last meeting, California has flooded while Colorado has stayed dry. The wet weather <br />bypassed Colorado as it moved northeast through Idaho and Montana. <br />. Due to the dry conditions, snowpack is sublimating and not melting. <br />. We have had more normal spring conditions for the last 10 days. <br />. Precipitation predictions are trending toward dryness in the early summer and a warmer than <br />average late summer with the possibility of monsoons. <br /> <br />Lon2-term weather forecast (John Henz. HDR En2ineerin2) <br />. Last Monday the CWCB Flood Threat Bulletin web site went live. HDR is hosting this site and <br />the website provides daily flood threat bulletins with basin flooding threat forecasts, weekly <br />outlooks, and 15 day outlooks. This website can be found through http://cwcb.state.co.us and <br /> <br />Flood Protection . Water Project Planning and Finance. Stream and Lake Protection <br />Water Supply Protection. Conservation Planning <br />