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<br />Average Heidke Skill scores for AMJ and JAS 2000-2004 (truly <br />independent verification period from training periods) <br /> <br />- -- -I <br /> <br />EXPERIMENTAL CDC FORECAST SKILL <br />FOR AMJ PRECIPITATION FORECASTS <br />(issued in March 2000 - 2004) <br /> <br />I I <br /> <br />EXPERIMENTAL CDC FORECAST SKILL <br />FOR JAS PRECIPITATION FORECASTS <br />(issued in March 2000 - 2004) <br /> <br />+0.50 <br /> <br />0.0 <br /> <br />+0.25 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />+ <br /> <br /> <br />0.0 <br /> <br /> <br />0,0 <br /> <br />+ <br /> <br />- ~ <br /> <br />Real-world skill is pretty good for most of my spring forecasts issued in March (and <br />I April), while summer forecasts are in general pretty lousy this far out (they do get better: <br />- that is better than chance, and better than CPC forecasts as one gets closer to the 1 <br />summer). <br />