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<br />EXPERIMENTAL (DC PRECIPITATION FORECAST GUI DANCE: <br />. <br /> <br />JUl-SEP 2006 (issued April 5,2006) <br /> <br />I I <br /> <br />w <br /> <br />w <br /> <br />+596 <br /> <br />I I <br /> <br /> <br />+5% <br /> <br />-596 <br /> <br />I I <br /> <br />-, ()l}6 <br /> <br />D <br /> <br />+10%+5% --596 -10% <br />-5% +5% +10% <br /> <br />- -- -I <br /> <br />My first stab at the summer <br />monsoon forecast should be taken <br />with a 'grain of salt' (see previous <br />slide), especially considering the <br />uncertainties surrounding this <br />year's ENSO situation, and the <br />direct contradiction to my NAO- <br />negative composites. On the other <br />hand, IF we get a transition into EI <br />Nino by the summer, and IF we <br />can avoid a fire season a la 2002, <br />this optimistic outlook might <br />actually be justified. More by the <br />end of next week at my website <br />below. <br /> <br />Source: k1aus. wolter@noaa.gov; <br /> <br />http://www. cdc.noaa.gov/people/ <br />klaus. wolter/SWcasts/ <br />