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<br /> <br />OQ2I71 <br /> <br />29 <br />between/among resources. The goal for the fIrst workshops is to produce a conceptual model of <br /> <br />the Colorado River ecosystem based on critical relationships that structure the system, identify <br /> <br />key information gaps, and suggest initial priorities for a long-term monitoring and research <br /> <br /> <br />progr~. <br /> <br />A second modeling workshop will be held in FY 98. This workshop will be to refine the <br /> <br /> <br />conceptual model with fIrst approximation parameter estimates, that can be used to evaluate <br /> <br /> <br />resource responses to different management strategies. In both cases, appropriate time will <br /> <br />elapse between the first and second modeling workshops to validate and refine submodels, <br /> <br />develop additional needed data and information, and where needed, specify necessary <br /> <br />subcomponents of submodels. <br /> <br />During the second workshop the process of assigning more definitive co-efficient values <br /> <br />to what are believed to be key model parameters will begin, as well as model validation and <br /> <br /> <br />sensitivity analysis to test key assumptions embedded in the models. Analysts will begin to <br /> <br /> <br />explore the consequences of alternative dam operations based on the assumptions and hypothesis <br /> <br /> <br />used to construct the model. These second workshop is intended to yield fIrst approximation <br /> <br />prototype model that, in association with new synthesis information being developed in FY 98 <br /> <br />and FY 99, will provide sound basis for development of more robust long-term monitoring and <br />research plans for the Colorado River ecosystem. <br /> <br />The ''working'' model will continue to be refined and developed over the course of the <br /> <br />fIve-year strategic plan. More detailed submodels for specifIc elements of the systems (i.e., <br /> <br />riparian vegetation, cultural resources, etc.) will be developed through prototypes to operatic <br /> <br />stages. <br /> <br />Final Draft - (12/15/97) For AMWG Review <br />