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002178 28 The FY 99 Program for the Colorado River ecosystem conceptual model will consist of the following objectives: I. Revision of the conceptual model(s), through a second workshop, to the level of a prototype model which assigns numeric values to key parameters in the model and which can be used to test alternative assumptions and hypotheses regarding changes to the ecosystem and associated resources from alternative dam operations. 2. Develop a prototype model with qualitative assessment capability. Development of the Colorado River conceptual model is being carried out through a project led by J. Korman and C. Walters of Ecometric Research Inc. and the University of British Columbia entitled: "A Proposal to Develop an Adaptive Environmental Assessment Model for the Colorado River Ecosystem." This is a 15 month effort, with a total project budget, exclusive oflogistic costs of $209,700. Logistics costs to support attendance at the scoping meeting and two modeling workshops has been estimated at $44,800. In FY 98, for the Colorado River model, the GCMRC, together with the modeling team, will convene scoping meetings to defme the problem scope, design subsequent modeling workshops, identify key people (scientists and stakeholders) to participate in the modeling workshops, and to assemble information that will be used in the first workshop. Following the scoping meeting, an initial modeling workshop will be convened in FY 98 to develop explicit relationships among Colorado River attributes. These workshops will involve scientists and stakeholders knowledgeable about the Colorado River and Lake Powell ecosystems. The GCMRC will work with the modeling teams to develop information bases including maps, databases, published reports, etc., that will be necessary for these workshops. Scientists and stakeholders together will defme resource variables/attributes that serve as linkages Final Draft - (12/15/97) For AMWG Review