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0003)0 1 I I space and Morrow Point and Crystal are set to live capacity. The components are combined to give the Upper reservoir target contents. I I _ If Powell is below rated power head then Flaming Gorge, Blue Mesa, and Navajo capacity is broken out and tested. Their combined capacity is computed as the current storage/live capacity ratio in the Upper Basin times their combined live .. capacity. Their computed storage is then checked against their combined rated power storage and is then set to rated power storage if less than that. The Morrow Point and Crystal component are set to live capacity. The components are combined to give the Upper reservoir target contents. The initial Upper reservoir storage change is then limited to the capacity target computed above. step 5. Evaporation for the Upper reservoir is computed as the average of the old and new contents to maximum contents ratio times the maximum evaporation rate. The storage change and evaporation is removed from the depleted runoff to give the regulated and depleted inflow to Lake Powell. Lake Mead Forecast: The scheduled objective release for Lake Mead is computed from gains and use schedules. The minimum flow to Mexico is read from the user interface and defaults to 1,515 kaf which includes 15 kaf for scheduling errors (ordered but not diverted). The uses below Mead are read from the CONUSE.DAT file and are the sum of SYS.BH, NVother, MWD, CAother, CAP, and AZother plus Mexico. The gains below Hoover, B.HOOVER and GILAltd, are read from the HYDRO. OAT file and deducted from the uses below Hoover to give the objective Hoover release. SYS.BH values in the CONUSE.DAT file include evaporation for Lake Mohave and Havasu (335 kaf) , phreatophytes (515 kaf) , and bypass to Mexico from the Yuma Desalting Plant (120 kaf). other uses below Hoover read from the CONUSE.DAT file, CAother and AZother, may be adjusted by a use pattern that replicates the variation of these uses over the period 1964-1990. The other uses are multiplied by the value for PATT read from the HYDRO. OAT file to give a varying scheduled use for these users. The current PATT values were adjusted so that unity was not exceeded more than 20% of the time. step 6. The depleted and regulated runoff forecast for Lake Mead is first computed as the depleted and regulated runoff for Powell plus a random normally distributed error. The random error errf is generated by computing a random number from a distribution with mean of 1 and standard deviation of 0.166666. The error is computed as flooderrmax*(l-errf). flooderrmax is read from the 6