WATFMeetingSummaryNov2006 - Laserfiche WebLink

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NOVEMBER2006 DROUGHT UPDATE Statewide snowpack is at 105% of average and at 126% of last year. Month-to-date precipitation totals in the San Juan/Delores and Upper Rio Grande Basins are lagging behind other basins with significantly below average values. However, it is still very early in the water year (Oct – Sept) and current totals represent 15%-20% of the annual peak. The South Platte Basin month-to-date precipitation totals are well above average, followed by the Arkansas and Colorado Basins. Statewide, precipitation levels are above average, with a significant contribution in October 2006. The latest U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook through th February 2007, released on Nov. 16 by NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center, reports that the ongoing El Nino should contribute to improving drought conditions throughout much of Colorado. Colorado reservoir storage ranges from a low of 44% of average in the Rio Grande Basin to a high of 114% in the San Juan/Dolores Basin. Despite the quick start to the winter snowpack, a glance at the conditions during the first week of November indicates most of the upper Rio Grande basin is beginning to lag behind normal. Agricultural reservoir levels in the South Platte continue to be far below average with many of the plains reservoirs either empty or near empty by the end of November. Overall storage in the major reservoirs east of Kersey was only 12% full at the end of the month. This is nearer the 2% full at the end of October 2002. In contrast, storage is so high in the Gunnison Basin that conditions resulting from additional snowpack and precipitation may exceed reservoir capacity. Long Term Forecast Summary El Niño, the biggest since 1997, typically means a wet October and March but a dry December through February for Colorado. Forecasts indicate that March 2007 may shape up to be wet on the west slope and dry on the eastern plains. Forecasts may still change as this El Niño progresses. NOTE: The maps and graphics depicted in this report were those presented at the November 20, 2006 meeting and may have been updated since the meeting.