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NOVEMBER 2006 DROUGHT UPDATE Water Availability Task Force Co-Chairs Veva McCaig, CWCB - 303-866-3339 Jack Byers, DWR - 303-866-3581 .co.us Email - genoveva.mccaig@state Email - jack.byers@state.co.us Executive Summary El Niño conditions have developed and are expected to strengthen to moderate conditions that should last into the spring 2007. Historically, Colorado has benefited from El Niño weather conditions. Northeast Colorado continues to experience moderate to severe drought conditions and dry conditions persist in the Front Range. Forecasts indicate an equal chance for above average to below average temperatures in Colorado, with above average precipitation is forecasted for southern Colorado. This forecast pattern is consistent with a typical El Niño. Statewide, snowpack is at 106% of average, with year-to-date totals equaling 19% of the peak snowpack. The th average peak snowpack is April 12. Due to El Niño, it is more likely that the upcoming snow season will be above average in the parts of southern Colorado. Forecasts for December 2006 through March 2007 show a slight to strong tilt of the odds towards warmer temperatures covering northeast Colorado, while the rest of Colorado has equal chances of below normal/near- normal/above-normal temperatures. Statewide, reservoir storage is at 92% of average and at 99% of last year. October moisture was extremely beneficial to the agriculture, especially to winter wheat crops. As a result, currently soil moisture is good. According to CO Dept of Agriculture, crop yield data for the past year indicates a 20% reduction. Municipal water suppliers north of Denver metro area have adequate water storage supplies available. Major Denver metro supply reservoirs were at 90% of capacity, compared to 50% capacity in October 2002, and 86% capacity in October 2005. As a result of drought conditions, Jumbo Reservoir did dry out resulting in loss of all fish species. Refilling stth began Nov. 1 and CDOW restocked with trout on Nov. 9. Water storage at John Martin Reservoir dipped below 3000 acre-feet. Had water levels dropped much lower, the fishery would have been in danger of being lost, costing hundreds of thousands of dollars. In order to keep levels above 3000 acre-feet, CDOW had to lease water during the summer and fall. The US Drought Monitor shows much of Colorado enjoying a respite from drought conditions. Exceptions include the continuing moderate to severely dry conditions in the northeast and abnormally dry conditions along the Front Range. The current elevation of Lake Powell, as of November 1, 2006, is 3,608 feet. Reservoir storage is 12.53 million acre-feet, 52% of capacity. Inflow to the reservoir is currently about 11,000 cfs. The projected elevation of Lake Powell on January 1, 2007 is now about 3,605 feet. January – April 2007 predictions from the NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center are that Colorado will experience above normal precipitation throughout much of the southern portion of the State. However, temperature predictions for the same time period demonstrate increasing chances for above normal temperatures in the western part of the State.