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<br />0028 2 5 <br /> <br />- <br /> <br />'\ '\ ~ \. u.sl2.S> <br />\:\\,,~O\l~~ ,~Q-,.e.. ~ <br />~o~ 'o\~~~~ <br />~ foY;)C.Y ~ \Q} <br /> <br />(OS 0.90), we expect to be forced <br /> <br />For the 90 percent operation strategy <br /> <br />into flood control 10 percent of the time. Therefore, the release is <br /> <br />calculated that will allow the system to barely operate without flood <br /> <br />control releases with an inflow which will be exceeded only 10 percent <br />of the time. This means that we expect a larger inflow 10 percent of <br />the time. Those larger inflows could not be handled without resorting <br /> <br />to flood control releases. <br /> <br />Accordingly, the 90 percentile inflow is used for calculating the <br /> <br />required release. This does not mean that we are assuming this level of <br /> <br />flow and it does not mean we are operating expecting this level of <br />inflow. It simply means that we are protecting the system from <br /> <br />undesirable or unscheduled releases for all inflowS~ --1- "'f ma!JRHH:td~ <br /> <br />less than this level. <br /> <br />We are, in fact, operating expecting the 50 percentile inflow with the <br /> <br />foresight to, be prepared for a wide range of actual inflows, both higher <br />and lower than the mean. <br /> <br />Certain modifications are made in the actual application which do not <br />change the characteristics of the strategies, but may change the actual <br /> <br />confidence level slightly from that of the strategy 10. Limits are <br />applied to the monthly releases, both upper and lower limits. Minor <br /> <br />excess or surplus releases dictated by the strategy are rounded to zero. <br />While commitments for MWO, CAP, and Mexico are firm for the year, <br /> <br />surpluses in excess of these are not committed for any but the first <br /> <br />6 months. It is felt that these modifications do not severely affect <br /> <br />4 <br />