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<br />002826 <br /> <br />- <br /> <br />- <br /> <br />the strategies. The actual probability is felt to be very close to the <br /> <br />nominal probability used as identification. <br /> <br />3.4 Method of Comparing the Strategies <br /> <br />As the method yielded various alternative strategies, it was desirable <br /> <br />to obtain a general idea of how the strategies might impact the river <br />system, at a relatively low cost and with relatively rapid response <br /> <br />time. For this purpose, a simplified annual model was formulated. This <br /> <br />model initially used an annual mass balance approach to simulate releases <br />from Lakes Mead and Powell given natural inflows, depletions, and <br /> <br />adjustments for evaporation and bank storage. In this simplified model, <br /> <br />the releases from Lake Mead are considered to be the system releases. <br /> <br />T~ refiRe tRe PQ~IoI1tJ vf tke Rlegg' ~nri p"Q"ise "~UJ3af'J irlMllllalivrI UII <br /> <br /> <br />fR6AtRly ri\l9r-fl~wi lA8 13e~f~1 ~t:m:::1 aL;vII, ~'ft'lllu<'Jl ]..edlil...wai-lMGdi-fip,tL <br /> <br />to PP9V~ WQt1f:h~ ostilftat'es...-. <br /> <br />Annual Model <br /> <br />This model (known as ANNSIM) first computed annual surplus releases from <br />Lake Mead based on target contents for the end of the water year, <br /> <br />beginning of year contents, annual inflow corresponding to the operation <br />strategy, annual evaporation, bank storage, and depletions. Total Mead <br />releases are taken as the sum of lower basin depletions and the surplus <br /> <br />release. End of water year target storage from Lake Powell was computed <br /> <br />from inflow, current contents, evaporation, bank storage, intervening <br /> <br />flow, upper basin and southern Nevada depletions, and Lake Mead <br /> <br />5 <br />