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<br />According to tYle report, the process of exponential growth is the critical element in determining the earth's
<br />limi ts. A quantity exhibits ellponential growth when it increases by a constant percentage of the whole in a
<br />constant time period. Currently, world population is growing ellponentially as Graph One illustrates.
<br />t1any other factors of modern life can also be
<br />plotted on an ellponential curve. Consumption
<br />of fertilizer and energy both have a doubling
<br />time of approllimately 10 yl"ars. What ellponential
<br />growth of population, resource use and in-
<br />dustrialization means for the world, aCCOrding
<br />to The Limits to Growth, is that unless we
<br />. change our lHe patterns drastically, within the
<br />next 100 years the earth will reach and over-
<br />shoot its capacity to sustain human life as we
<br />now know it.
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<br />Graph One - WORLD POPULATION
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<br />World population since 1650 has been growing e:r:panenrially af an Increas-
<br />ing rafe. Estimated population In 1970 Is a/ready sllgh"y higher than the
<br />projection iIIuslrafed here (which was msds In 1958). Ths pressnt world
<br />popu/atlO1l growth rate is about 2.1 {Jercsnt per year, cOffespondlng to a
<br />doubling lime of 33 years.
<br />SOURCE; Ooneld J_ Bog.... P,JnClp", or O'~/'~, (~.w Vorl.<: JoIln W,ley .nd Sonl,
<br />1068).
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<br />The Limits to Growth realize that the values
<br />ellpressed in these tables are not absolute,
<br />they do indicate future trends unless the
<br />basic world system as it presently exists
<br />is changed.
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<br />In plotting the future growth process, the
<br />Club of Rome study takes into account mainly
<br />phYSical resources since they are to some
<br />degree measureable and are ultimately the
<br />determinants of the limits to growth. The
<br />authors recognize, however, that "even if
<br />the earth's physical systems are capable of
<br />supporting a much larger, more economically
<br />developed population, the actual growth of
<br />the economy and of the population will de-
<br />pend on SuCh factors as peace and social
<br />stability, education and employment and
<br />steady technological progress," factors
<br />which are much more difficult to predict.
<br />The political and social systems needed to
<br />cope with a doubling or tripling of popula.
<br />tion very possibly would not develop rapidly
<br />enough. Such institutions rarely change in
<br />anticipation of a need but rather in re.
<br />sponse to one.
<br />
<br />In the course of the study, the MIl team
<br />first plotted what would happen if present
<br />trends continue unchecked. Graph Three
<br />illustrates this.
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<br />An insidiouS aspect of exponential growth rates
<br />is that they can cause the unwary to over-
<br />estimate how long natural resources wi 11 last.
<br />For T~amp1e, known global reserves of coal are
<br />5xl0 tons. At current rates of consumption
<br />they would last 2300 years. However, the pro-
<br />jected rate of grOlolth in coal consumption is
<br />4. a per year. With this e~ponential growth
<br />rate the knCl'Wn reserves will last only 111 years.
<br />According to the report, even if coal reserves
<br />..ere five tillEs what now exist, they would only
<br />last 150 years.
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<br />Graph Two shows the exponential growth curve of
<br />world industrial production.
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<br />One of the commonest arguments for continued
<br />growth in industrial output is tnat it
<br />is necessary for the underdeveloped countries
<br />to catch up with the prosperity of the highly
<br />industrialized countries. As Tables A and B
<br />indicate, "The process of economic growth, as
<br />it is occurring today, is ine.>:orably widening
<br />the absolute gap between the rich and poor
<br />nations of the world." While the authors of
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<br />Graph Two - WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
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<br />World Industrial production, re/atlve to the base year 1963, a/so show. a
<br />clear eJ:pOllential increase despite small fluctuations. The 1963-68 aver.9.
<br />growth rat. ot tota' production is 7 percent per yesr. Th. per cap/ta growth
<br />rale is 5 ".rcenl per year.
<br />SOURCES, 1.1" c."."........ 01 E.:_lc ...d Sociel Aft..... Sf,".,iC.1 V"'boo~ 19Se IItld
<br />StelJ.fJ.:.1 r.v/>ool fH'll (,"w York: U'hlld ~"I_. 1~7 .114 UI70).
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