WSP12305 - Laserfiche WebLink

Home Browse Search

~ 'e4 ~ (1)'11 ------- ~ . . 1707 ROCKY MOUNTAIN CENTER ON ENVIRONMENT 4260 East Evans Avenue . Denver, Colorado 80222 . 303/757-5439 ROMCOE May, 1972 THE LIMITS TO GROWTH: A Synopsis Prepared by Sigrid H. Freese~ Open Space Report Editor For a decade, many eminent scientists and other leaders have been alerting us to the dangers of the tremendous stresses we are placing on the world we live in. Rachel Carson. Rene DuBois, George Wald, the Erl;chs, Barry Commoner, Loren Eiseley, Jacques Cousteau, Lamont Cole and Kenneth Boulding have expressed warnings. Their studies. and those of many others, have touched on various aspects of the problem, but have not progressed to the poi nt of "putti ng it all together." Now an outstandi ng fi rs t effort at defi ni ng the problem of the bi 0- sphere's future on a systematized basis has been completed. The Rocky Mountain Center on Environment believes that The Limits to Growth is one of the most important works of tne a~caae. on~ tnat must become wide1j understood. RO~[OE nas prepare a this brief synopsis in order to aid in the circulation of the ideas contained in The Limits to Growth. However, the book should be read in its entirety by all who are seriously interested in the continuation of human civilization in its present form, The Club of Rome is a group of about 70 leading scientists, educators, humanists, industrialists and civil servants from around the world. Members of the Club hold varying ideological, ethnic and political viewpoints. They are "united, however, by their overriding conviction that the major problems facing mankind are of such complexity and are so interrelated that traditional institutions and policies are no longer able to cope with them, nor even to come to gri ps wi th thei r full content. II Severa 1 years ago Cl ub members deci ded to i ni ti ate a study call ed the IIproject on the Predi cament of Mank ind. II The overall intent of the II Project II ; s to "exami ne the camp 1 ex of problems troub 1 i ng man of all nati ons: poverty in the midst of plenty; degradation of the environment; loss of faith in institutions; uncontrolled urban spread; insecurity of employment; alienation of youth; rejection of traditional values; and inflation and other monetary and economic disruptions." The Club intends to study these divergent problems as their technical, social, economic and political elements interact in society. The Limits to Growth is the published result of Phase One of the Project. The Phase One team operated at MIT, using a global model designed for computer study lito examine the five basic factors that determine, and therefore ultimately limit, growth on this planet: population; agricultural production; natural resources; industrial lyroduc.tion., and ?oHutioo,1I ?'na'Se One l"eache'S conc1usions that na\le been praised by some and criticized by others. But even the harshes t cri ti cs offer no preci se evidence that the worl d wi 11 not reach a cri si s stage in the lOa-year period suggested by the report; they merely present the hope or assumption that somehow teChnology will come along ond rescue us as it has done in the past. The ideas and conclusions of The Limits to Growth are not new or completely original. From Malthus to Barry Commoner, philosopher-scientists have told the world it was in danger, that exploding populations or uncontrolled technologies would destroy us all. Meanwhile, more and more people on one-third of the earth have been aChieving ever higher standards of living, while ignoring the warning Signs that unlimited growth as a way of life cannot conti nue forever. The Limits to Growth is unique in that for the first time available statistical evidence on growth-limiting factors has been fed into a computer in order to produce predictions on their future behavior. The central conclusion is chilling: ) , , I ~ If the present growth trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next 100 years. The most probable result will be a rather sudden and un- controllable decline in both population and industrial capacity.