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<br />-, <br /> <br />An additional modification of the use factor model completed <br /> <br />during the technical review of draft Technical Appendix 2 consisted of <br /> <br />the elimination of the intercept value that had been included in the <br /> <br />use factor model. <br /> <br />Using the modified use factor model, in conjunction with the <br />original population forecasts developed for Task 2, total water demand <br />for the EIS demand area in the year 2035 was predicted to be 705,000 <br />acre-feet. This aggregate demand estimate includes modifications to <br />account for natural metering, marginal price in previously flat rate <br />districts, separation of use factors for the city and county of Denver <br />and the suburbs, and elimination of the intercept. Estimates of <br />savings attributable to natural replacement of water-using fixtures <br />vary among the parties concerned with the EIS and cannot be presented <br />at the present time. The natural replacement adjustment will continue <br />to be discussed in conjunction with the Task 4 analysis. <br /> <br />The average absolute error of the use factor model as presented in <br /> <br /> <br />the draft report was 23.5 percent. This error is for all providers as <br /> <br />they currently exist. The larger districts, which account for a large <br /> <br /> <br />proportion of the water demand, have low individual errors. As the <br /> <br />smaller districts grow, their water use characteristics will approach <br /> <br />those of the larger providers. This will tend to reduce the average <br /> <br />error. The recent adjustments to the use factor model also increase <br /> <br />its accuracy in "forecasting" the historical data. The average abso- <br /> <br />lute error of the modified use factor model is 21.9 percent. The <br /> <br />average error for the largest 10 districts is 11.2 percent and the <br /> <br />error for the largest single water district, the city and county of <br /> <br /> <br />Denver, 1s 0.9 percent. <br /> <br />23 <br />