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SAFETY FACTORS Summary of Comments During the public comment period for draft Technical Appendix 2, there were numerous suggestions that the population forecasts or the water demand forecasts include a safety factor. This was variously identified as recognizing an inherent margin of error with Ion ~-term forecasts, insurance against uncertainty about the unknown, and essen- tially prudent utility planning. The utility managers further maintain that from their perspective, the cause and risks associated with undersupply are unacceptable. This implies that if forecasts do not meet future expec tations, an over- supply is preferable. The actual decision concerning the provision and magnitude of a safety factor should be based on the risk and costs involved with future undersupply or oversupply. Response The COE recognizes this legitimate local responsibility and seeks to avoid any interference with local utility planning decisions. At the same time, safety factors are inconsistent with the definition of unconstrained water demand forecasts which, in the context of Task 2, have no relationship to supply strategies of any sort. This is espe- cially true for safety factors applied to any particular demographic projection such as population, which would then become internalized in the demand projections. The COE has used its best judgment in analyz- ing population projec tions and other fac tors. To internalize a safety margin for any factor would provide a misleading result. The Task 2 Technical Appendix and the water demand forecasts included therein stand alone as information to be used in the Task 5 scenario evalua- tion. Therefore, safety factors are not considered appropria te for the Task 2 water demand forecasts. 24