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<br />uuc::wo <br /> <br />too large a population. If they. mean too large fro.1m the stand- <br />point of what is desirable in terms of the environment of the area <br />or other qualitative measures, they may be right. However, it <br />appears to us that past and present trends indicate the growth <br />that we have projected. This does not mean that a planner <br />should not propose to alter this projected rate of growth. <br /> <br />~~ <br /> <br />~r:~:'~~:;7 <br /> <br /> <br />I <br />I <br /> <br /> <br />,. <br />Jf%f-' <br /> <br />In other areas, and there are several, we have projected <br />growth at a rate slower than the people of the area would like <br />to see take place. We are not advocating that the slow growth <br />should prevail, but rather we are projecting what the available <br />evidence indicates. <br /> <br />One reviewer - - who may not have thought he was agreeing <br />with the baseline concept, expressed it very nicely. "These <br />projections present the historic trends extended to futllre time <br />periods and in no way reflect the potentials or desires of the <br />State or region to modify or change those historic relationships. " <br />This is correct. The desires and potentials for change should be <br />expressed as alternatives growing out of programs for change. <br /> <br />This brings us to the point which needs to be emphasized -- <br />one which we need to keep before us in the review of the OBERS <br />data. In considering proposals for changes in the projections <br />we should. differentiate between those changes which should be <br />incorporated in the baseline projections and those which should <br />be set forth as alternative projections. Only the former -- <br />corrections in the baseline projections - - are to be considered <br />in the revision of the OBERS report. <br /> <br />When this baseline concept is understood and accepted, the <br />OBERS agencies and the field people with knowledge of local <br />economic conditions can work together to develop the best set <br />of baseline projections. Once the baseline projections have <br />be.en established, alternative levels of activity resulting from <br />programs for change away from historical trends can be developed <br />and the OBERS agencies will have much to contribute to those <br />alternative projections. <br /> <br /> <br />-2- <br /> <br />I <br />I <br /> <br /> <br />::;t:;::\~~~ <br />::-'ic<'_~-;;:_> <br />;~~~~.)? <br />;';:,":-,.;-'-;. <br /> <br />~~~~~: <br /> <br />