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WSP08945
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Last modified
1/26/2010 2:50:19 PM
Creation date
10/12/2006 3:22:41 AM
Metadata
Fields
Template:
Water Supply Protection
File Number
8030
Description
Section D General Compact Issues - US Water Resources Council
State
CO
Basin
Statewide
Date
12/1/1971
Author
US Water Resources C
Title
Summary - Obers Review Meetings - Held July 1971 - RE-Economic Activity in the US by Water Resources Region and Subarea-Historic and Projected-1929-2020
Water Supply Pro - Doc Type
Report/Study
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<br />OBERS Review Report, April 1971 <br /> <br />OBE Response to Questions on Concepts, Measures <br />and Methodology <br /> <br />~tt}rf~ <br />~S~if <br />.-_.,~ .'-' <br /> <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />{:~:i~lRf~: <br />~;~;~ <br /> <br />"---"..-; <br />~~'..~/f:S' <br /> <br />~~r~~ <br />I <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />.. ); <br /> <br />002905 <br /> <br />1. Baseline Concept <br />Many of the reviewers made comments or raised questions <br />WhICh indicated that they were not thinking in terms of the base~ <br />line concept underlying the OBERS projections. <br /> <br />. The baseline projections concept as used in the OBERS . <br />report means that the projections represent our best estimate oi <br />the iuture course oi economic events provided that no new policies <br />and programs are developed to change present trends. This means <br />that the projections prepared in accordance with this concept give <br />an estimate of where the various regional economies are going if <br />society does nothing to change the course of events. Society <br />(national or local) can then decide whether or not the resulting <br />economy is what is wanted. If not, courses of action can be de- <br />veloped to achieve the goals set. <br /> <br />When action is taken to change the regional economy, a frame- <br />work is needed within which to evaluate the program. Also needed <br />is .abase from which to actually measure the results of the pro- <br />gram after it has been in oper ation. The baseline projections <br />provide both the baseline and the measurement framework. <br /> <br />To reiterate what is given on page 1-6 of the report, "The <br />projections are in no sense a goal, an assigned share or a con- <br />straint on regions' economic activIty. Neither are they constraInts <br />on the planner In consldenng a'ternatIve .levels ot growth. .l<"urther- <br />more they c,,-rry 110 connotatIon a:o to deSJrab:l1ty or. und.ersirability." <br /> <br />One reviewer commented thatto use a baseline set of projec- <br />tions "is to prejudice the position of alternatives." This is not <br />the case. The baseline projection, when analyzed, may very well <br />substantiate the need for a course of action which will bring about <br />an alternative rate of growth. /An alternative is defined in this <br />context as a set of projections reflecting the economic activity <br />which it is estimated will result from a progr am designed to change <br />the present trends~..1 This need or desire for a changed growth rate <br />applies to areas of too rapid proje cted growth as well as.to areas <br />where the projected growth may seem too low. In some areas <br />some reviewers have commented that OBERS has projected <br /> <br /> <br />~1!.1~ <br />~~.:~S{i <br />~'~_:'~:-'.f'~.' <br />{;~~~~~<:~.~ <br /> <br />, <br /> <br />,:;:..:/ <br /> <br />- 1 <br /> <br />:"-;:-:';-;.,. <br />---,<--'.:'.:::-: <br /> <br />...,.;-....-. <br /> <br />-"-'.-.- <br />..,--...., <br /> <br />~'. '-:'," .... <br />
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