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<br />00290'7 <br /> <br />II. <br /> <br />National Projections <br /> <br />i~ <br />I <br />;?~{~ <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />. ;~ <br /> <br />A. Population Growth Rate <br />Several comments were made about the use of the "C" series <br />population projections as gpposed to the use of the "D" series or <br />some other seri<es with a low<er assumed birth rate. <br /> <br />The decision as to the national population growth rate was <br />one of the first decisions to be made in the projection process <br />and the decision to use the "C" series was made in 1969 before <br />we were aware of the low birth rates of recent years. At that <br />time most demographers were recommending the "C" series. <br /> <br />While many people now recommend the use of the "D" series <br />there are still those who believe the "C" series to be valid. It <br />should be pointed out that the lowest birth rates in recent history <br />occurred in the mid-1930's with the high point being reached in <br />the late 1950's. <br /> <br />It is not possible to change the national population growth <br />rate at this point in the projection procedure. A lower growth <br />rate will have to be treated as an alternative and incorporated <br />in a later set of projections. <br /> <br />However,. a change in the national population growth rat!' <br />will have little effect on current water resources planning. <br />Current J)lanning is for programs and investments to fulfill <br />the near term (15-20 years) requirements. During that time <br />the chan"ge in the birth rate will have little. effect. The labor <br />force for the next twenty years is already born so the pro- <br />jections of production would not change until 2000. By 1990 <br />the total population under the "D" series would be only about <br />6 percent less than under the "C" series. A six percent change <br />in total population is well within the possible errors in the pro- <br />jections and the water use coefficients. <br /> <br /> <br />The following tables show the relationship between the "C" <br />series used in the projections which was published in 1967 as <br />compared with the "C" and "D" series published in 1970. The <br />1970 "C" series was based on the same fertility rate as the <br />1967 "C" series but started from a slightly lower attained <br />population. The differences shown under the heading 1970 C <br />1967 C is what is referred to on page II-3 as statistically in- <br />significant for water and related land resource planning. <br /> <br />~~~(~~~~~t <br />!W:ji\ <br /> <br />";;-:":"";:.-. <br />.'.....c_".. <br /> <br />/<~;:!-: <br /> <br />3 <br /> <br />(.;-:::;.,-,.. <br /> <br />~~l:-:>' <br />