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Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences <br />UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO BOULDER and NOAA <br />Scenario planning with E0 <br />Meeting SLC’s freshwater needs <br />SLC Dept. of Public Utilities water- <br />supply scenario planning: <br />•Dclimate <br />•drought scenarios <br />•operational scenarios <br />SAC-SMA <br />model <br />calibrated to sub-basin <br />Runoff modeling: <br />[Bardsley et al., Earth Interactions 2013] <br />DE0 <br />DET <br />DPrcp, DT <br />DRunoff <br />DE0 =DT ¶E0 <br />¶T only <br />DT = 1–6 °F by 2035–64 <br />analytical expression <br />Prcpt, Tt <br />E0i <br />climatological monthly E0 <br />dynamic Prcp, T <br />ET Runoff <br />•Runoff reduction – -3.8% / oF •seasonal reductions – largest in May-Sept <br />•earlier, reduced volume <br />•greatest threat – meeting late-summer <br />water demands