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<br />analyses and depict the critical failure surfaces <br />resulting from search routines incorporated in the <br />stability analysis program. Similar to the discussion <br />presented in our letter dated July 28, 1993, as the <br />level of the tailings within the impoundment rise, the <br />factor of safety for these potential upstream slope <br />failures will increase. <br />During earthquake shaking and following dissipation of <br />excess pore water pressures generated during <br />liquefaction particularly the soil column can settle. <br />Tokimatsu and Seed (1984) present a method for <br />estimating earthquake induced settlements which is <br />based on empirical data from a number of sites <br />subjected to large earthquakes. The empirical data <br />summarized in this paper can be utilized to provide an <br />estimate of the settlements which may occur beneath the <br />dam raise due to an earthquake. <br />Following dissipation of pore pressures generated <br />during liquefaction, volumetric strains of 1 to 10 <br />percent have been observed for a M=7.5 earthquake. The <br />same magnitude earthquakes have produced strains of <br />zero to 0.5 percent for saturated sands which did not <br />liquefy and very low strains for non-saturated granular <br />deposits. If the volumetric strain is assumed to occur <br />only in the vertical direction, then settlements due to <br />an earthquake can be estimated. <br />For the San Luis Project the potentially liquefiable <br />zone will be conservatively estimated to undergo a <br />strain of 7.5 gercent during and following the <br />earthquake and the remainder of the tailings a strain <br />of 0.5 percent. Beneath the upstream toe of the raise <br />there is approximately 3 ft of potentially liquefiable <br />tailings and 26 ft of non-saturated tailings. Assuming <br />the strains occur only in the vertical plane the <br />resulting settlement at the upstream toe of the raise <br />would be 4.3 inches. Beneath the upstream edge of the <br />raise crest, there is approximately 5 ft of non- <br />saturated tailings. With a vertical strain of 0.5 <br />percent, the crest would settle only 0.3 inches. The <br />resulting differential settlement would be 4 inches <br />over a distance of 70 ft which the structure is capable <br />of tolerating. <br />Based on the results of the additional stability <br />analyses which were conducted using steady-state <br />strengths for the liquefiable tailings and inertia <br />forces and the conservative estimates of seismically <br />induced settlements, the Division's request that BMRI <br />commit to providing an additional 4 ft of freeboard <br />with the raise is not warranted. <br />