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• <br />• <br /> <br />H7.2 Risk Analysis and the Probability of Future Landslide Outcomes <br />This section is an update of Appendix F of the "1997/98 Landslide Correcrive Measures Report". This <br />section provides new discussions oil risk analysis and the probability of future landslide outcomes based on <br />information and analysis collected to June 30, 1999. <br />Risk and Probability analysis provides a method for approximating the probability of future landslide <br />movements. The method used in this report is an observational method [hat is based upon historical and <br />recent movements of the landslide, and related stability analyses. <br />Assigning Probabilities to Landslide Outcomes. Possible landslide outcomes were placed into four <br />categories based on the speed of landslide movement: <br />(1) rapid movement where mitigation measures can not be performed, and severe property loss, production <br />loss, and potential loss of life occurs. No correction of the slide is possible and the costs to mitigate <br />the site would be large. Mountain Coal would most likely abandon the site and carry out reclamation <br />of the area. <br />(2) slow movement where construction mitigation can be performed in time to slow the slide and where <br />maintenance and repair of structures can be made. Mountain Coal could continue production during <br />this period, but there is a possibility of short shut-downs occurring. <br />(3) very slow movement where periodic maintenance of structures is required and where close monitoring <br />of the slide is required. <br />(4) extreme/y slow movement where little or no maintenance of the facility is required and where a scaled <br />back monitoring program is put into place. <br />The assignment of probabilities to these outcomes was based upon the use of two methods: <br />Bart Engineering Company <br />PCDOCS1208220ICAK <br />July 31,1999 <br />23 Appendix H <br />1999 Addendum to <br />7997198 Landslide Corrective Measures Report <br />