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Chapter 1 Purpose and Need Application of the Unsuitability Criteria for Coal Mining described in 43 CFR 3461 (see Appendix A) did not identify any lands in the tract as being "unsuitable" according to the criteria. Some restrictions were identified to except some of the criteria. These restrictions will be carcied forward as stipulations on the coal lease (See Section 2.5.1). 1.8 REASONABLY FORESEEABLE MINE OPERATIONS PLAN AND FORESEEABLE SURFACE USE To analyze potential surface impacts due to underground mine subsidence, this FEIS assumes a Reasonably Foreseeable Mine Operations Plan (RFMP) for this leasing decision. In order to effectively analyze potential post-lease activities on the land surface, the FEIS also assumes a scenario of potential surface use. It must be noted, however, that decisions pertaining to surface use and disturbance, with the exception of subsidence impacts, are not made at the leasing stage. Rather, the decisions related to post-lease surface activities are made when and if site-specific surface use proposals are made, and are evaluated under NEPA based on their own merits. 1.8.1 Reasonably Foreseeable Mine Operations Plan The Dry Fork LBA contains an estimated 17 million tons of Federal coal reserves (BLM 2004) in the B and E Seams (see also Section 3.2 - Topography, Soils and Geology). For this analysis, it is assumed that the coal would be recovered using the longwall method of underground coal mining. The tract is bounded on the north and west by curcently leased Federal coal, on the east by unmineable (thin) coal, and on the south by inferred mineable coal (unleased) (BLM 2004). Therefore, it is assumed that access to the coal reserves in the Dry Fork LBA tract would most easily be achieved from [he existing underground workings at the West Elk Mine with existing surface facilities. Understanding that Federal coal is leased through a competitive bid process, the analysis assumes that another company, other than Ark Land/MCC, may be the successful bidder at the lease sale. If there were a successful bidder other than Ark Land/MCC, the tract could potentially be subleased back to MCC (because the successful bidder would not have the advantage of existing coal handling facilities or control of adjacent coal reserves, as does MCC). Subleasing would be a high-risk business proposition for an outside bidder because MCC may refuse any such sublease agreement. The coal does not outcrop on the Dry Fork LBA tract, therefore no portals could be located and there may not be a reasonable shaft location. Production at the West Elk Mine is limited to 8.2 million tons per year based on current air quality and mining operation plans and corresponding permits. Current production ranges between 6.5 and 7 million tons per year using the longwall mining method, and is capable of peaking at a rate of 7.5 million tons per year. Annual production will depend on several factors, including rail transportation, which ultimately limits production from the North Fork Valley. It is assumed that the coal would be transported to market using the existing coal handling facilities and existing spur rail line. The RFMP for the Dry Fork tract assumes the coal in the E Seam would be extracted from longwall panels trending northwest southeast. These longwall panels and corcesponding development mining are planned to occur on an adjacent lease already held by MCC. The foreseeable mine operations plan in the Dry Fork LBA tract is an eastward extension of the longwall panels planned in the existing lease to the west (see also Seeflon 3.1.3.1 Past, Present and Reasonably Foreseeable Actions). The mining would "retreat" to the main entries of the mine. Continuous miner development would be used to drive development entries for the longwall panels, with the primary coal production being achieved using the longwall method and equipment. The E Seam coal reserves in the Dry Fork LBA tract represent about 30 months of additional coal reserves based on the rate of mining currently employed at the West Elk Mine (BLM 2004). The E Seam coal in the Dry Fork LBA tract would be mined from about 2008 to 2015. Some variations [o these timeframes may occur based on permitting, Dry Fork Lease-By-Application FEIS 1-7