2020-10-27_PERMIT FILE - C1981035 (20)

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Biological Assessment Federal Coal Lease Modification(COC-62920)and Federal Mine Permit(CO-0106A)Revision and Renewal ■ Power generation ■ Agriculture, including irrigation ■ Livestock grazing ■ Prescribed burning or other vegetation treatments ■ Wildfire ■ Water impoundments The amount of development from future private and state actions cannot be quantified for this assessment, but it would be subject to federal, state, and local regulatory oversight and planning, which would avoid or minimize potential cumulative impacts. Changes to surface water quality from development within the watersheds; livestock grazing; and contamination from sewage treatment plants, mining, septic systems, and runoff from developed or cultivated land could affect all subject fish species and their designated critical habitats. In the future, population increases would also increase the amount of recreation (e.g., boating, fishing, off-highway vehicle use)resulting in non-point source pollution, the introduction of non-native species, and increased angling pressure. More water use would be expected as population in the AA continues to grow. Global Climate Change According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level." Average northern hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years and likely the highest in at least the past 1,300 years (IPCC 2007). It is very likely that over the past 50 years, cold days, cold nights, and frosts have become less frequent over most land areas, and hot days and hot nights have become more frequent(IPCC 2007). It is likely that heat waves have become more frequent over most land areas, and the frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most areas (IPCC 2007). The IPCC (2007)predicts that changes in the global climate system during the 21st century are very likely to be larger than those observed during the 20th century. For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.36°C per decade is projected (IPCC 2007). Afterwards, temperature projections increasingly depend on specific emission scenarios (IPCC 2007). Various emission scenarios suggest that by the end of the 21 st century, average global temperatures are expected to increase 1.08°F to 7.2°F, with the greatest warming expected over land (IPCC 2007). Localized proj ections suggest the southwest may experience the greatest temperature increase of any area in the lower 48 states (IPCC 2007). The IPCC predicts that it is very likely hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation will increase in frequency (IPCC 2007). There also is high July 2017 30