2020-10-27_PERMIT FILE - C1981035 ‎(22)‎

• Permit No: C1981035
• IBM Index Class Name: Permit File
• Doc Date: 10/27/2020
• Section_Exhibit Name: KII Appendix 16 Dunn Ranch LBA Technical Resources Report
• Media Type: D
• Archive: No

onshore percentages to the projected emissions scenarios shows BLM's potential decision scope of
approximately 3.32 percent to 7.15 percent of the carbon budget.As a nation,the total projected demand
for all fossil fuels (Federal, non-Federal, domestic and imported) relative to the future year projections
would result in the consumption of between 16.7 percent to 35.9 percent of the carbon budget. Federal
scope emissions would account for approximately 20 percent of the national scope budget consumption
for either projection scenario.
The Proposed Action is expected to extend the life of the mine for 22 years with a total of 17 million tons
of coal being mined (19 years @ 800,000 tons and 3 years @ 600,000 tons). Direct, indirect, and
downstream coal combustion emissions were calculated over the life of the mine (22 years). Based on
estimated mining rates, EPA FLIGHT data from 2017 for the Tijeras and Pueblo cement facilities and
current estimated downstream combustion, approximately 450.6 million tons of COze could be emitted
over the life of the project.This value represents approximately 0.09 percent of the mean face value (500
GtCO2) of the carbon budget.
Projected Climate Impacts
The following information on predicted climate change has been summarized from the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The future climate equilibrium is dependent upon warming caused by past anthropogenic emissions,
future anthropogenic emissions, and natural variability. Global mean surface temperature change for the
period 2016-2035 relative to 1986-2005 is similar for the four RCPs and will likely be in the range 0.3°C
to 0.7°C (medium confidence). The projection assumes no major volcanic eruptions, changes in natural
emissions sources (e.g., CH4 and N2O), or unexpected changes in total solar irradiance. By 2050, the
magnitude of the projected climate change is significantly affected by the overall emissions path the world
is tracking along.
The projected increase of global mean surface temperature by the end of the 21st century (2081-2100)
relative to 1986-2005 is likely to be 0.3°C to 1.7°C under RCP2.6, 1.VC to 2.6°C under RCP4.5, 1.4°C to
3.1°C under RCP6.0 and 2.6°C to 4.8°C under RCP8.5. It is virtually certain that there will be more frequent
hot and fewer cold temperature extremes over most land areas on daily and seasonal timescales,as global
mean surface temperature increases. It is also very likely that heat waves will occur with a higher
frequency and longer duration. Occasional cold winter extremes will continue to occur, due to the
inherent variability within the climate system. Changes in precipitation patterns will not be uniform, but
in general arid regions are expected to become dryer while wetter areas can expect more frequent
exceptional precipitation events. Oceans will continue to warm, with the greatest impacts occurring at
the surface of tropical and northern hemisphere subtropical regions. Models also predict ocean
acidification will increase for all RCP scenarios, where surface pH can be expected to decrease by 0.06 to
0.07 (15 to 17 percent)for RCP2.6 and 0.14 to 0.15 (38 to 41 percent)for RCP4.5.Year-round reductions
in Arctic sea ice are projected for all RCP scenarios and it is virtually certain that near-surface (upper 3.5
m) permafrost extent at high northern latitudes will be reduced (37 percent - RCP2.6 to 81 percent -
RCP8.5)as global mean surface temperature increases. Global mean sea level rise will very likely continue
at a faster rate than observed from 1971 to 2010. For the period 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005, the
Dunn Ranch Area LBA and Mining Plan Modification 46
Technical Resources Report