2020-10-27_PERMIT FILE - C1981035 ‎(22)‎

• Permit No: C1981035
• IBM Index Class Name: Permit File
• Doc Date: 10/27/2020
• Section_Exhibit Name: KII Appendix 16 Dunn Ranch LBA Technical Resources Report
• Media Type: D
• Archive: No

Table 2.2-20 BLM Colorado (Federal) Projected Upstream and Downstream Emissions
(MMtonnes)
Scenario CO2 CH4 N20 CO2e %CB(2018- %CB(2018-
2032) 2050)
Low Oil and Gas-Upstream 141 3 0 254 0.012% 0.028%
Low Oil and Gas- Downstream 1,412 NA NA NA 0.12% 0.28%
Low Coal-Upstream 5.81 1.52 0.00 61.28 0.005% 0.012%
Low Coal- Downstream 616 NA NA NA 0.06% 0.12%
Total Low 2,171 NA NA NA 0.2% 0.44%
High Oil and Gas-Upstream 261 5 0 441 0.023% 0.052%
High Oil and Gas- Downstream 2,612 NA NA NA 0.22% 0.53%
High Coal-Upstream 6.55 3.39 0.00 129.28 0.011% 0.026%
High Coal- Downstream 616 NA NA NA 0.06% 0.12%
Total High 3,496 NA NA NA 0.31% 0.73%
Percent Carbon Budget(CB)calculated for mean face value (500Gt),Table emissions are for the 2018 to 2050
projection period
BLM Colorado is also providing estimates of the total cumulative Federal decision scope emissions based
on the methods described above. Projections for new oil, gas and coal development in other states is
unknown, and the emissions development strategies employed for CARMMS that are specific to
Colorado's regulatory structure and the development parameters within each of the state's basins would
be inappropriate to try and apply to the national scope. In order to estimate the upstream portion of the
national emissions scope, the Bureau is using published Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) data for energy use
within the power sector as a reasonable surrogate for back calculating these emissions as a percentage of
the totals relative to the projected downstream percentages.This data shows that production, processing,
and transport emissions account for approximately 5 percent of the total life-cycle emissions for coal-fired
power generation and 15 percent of the total lifecycle emissions for natural-gas-fired power generation
(assumed to be similar for oil lifecycle).
At the AEO growth rates,total Federal upstream and downstream emissions of CO2 from oil,gas, and coal
are estimated to be 5.91, 4.01, and 11.19 Gt, respectively, for the 2032 projection period. For the 2050
projection scenario, these emissions are estimated to be 12.65, 8.59, and 25.39 Gt. As previously stated,
the BLM has management responsibilities (decision scope authority) for onshore Federal minerals only.
For the report year, onshore Federal production accounted for 74.3 percent of all natural gas produced
and 31.2 percent of all oil production (coal production is obviously 100 percent onshore). Applying the
Dunn Ranch Area LBA and Mining Plan Modification 45
Technical Resources Report