2014-10-10_PERMIT FILE - C1996083 (4)

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Application of Bowie Resources, LLC Application for Conditional Water Right and for Conditional Appropriative Right of Exchange Page 6 two stations might change as a result of future mining activity. The extent of streamflow loss, if any, will be calculated using the following guidelines. Following the baseline data collection period, regression analyses of the paired average daily streamflow data will be performed. Paired streamflow measurements collected on the same day at the upper monitoring station and the lower monitoring station will be plotted on a graph and regression equations describing the relationship between the two sites will be calculated. The equations, developed using baseline (pre- mining) average daily streamflow data, will allow the Applicant to estimate what the streamflows at the lower monitoring station should be, based upon the upstream flow measurements. The regression analyses will focus on the "receding hydrograph" of West Fork Terror Creek. This is the period that the creek transitions from seasonal high streamflows associated with snowmelt to lower base flow conditions characteristic of the July through October irrigation season. Based upon the initial 2014 baseline monitoring results, two regression equations will be developed to describe the streamflow conditions occurring during this period. One will be developed to describe the streamflow relationship between the two sites that occur during the tail end of the transition period when streamflows are still influenced by the last of the seasonal snowmelt. A second regression equation will describe the streamflow relationship between the two streamflow monitoring stations during the low, base flow period when streamflows primarily originate from basin seeps and springs. The distinction between these two regression periods was evident in the 2014 monitoring results. Generally, during the tail -end of the active snowmelt season, West Fork Tenor Creek exhibited a gain in streamflow between the upstream monitoring station and the downstream monitoring station. Following the active snowmelt period, there was generally a slight loss of streamflow between the upstream and downstream monitoring stations. The established regression equations will be utilized to calculate confidence intervals with a reliability of 95 %. This means that there would be a 95% probability that, based upon the upstream measurements, the downstream measurements should fall within the expected range. If in the future, the measured streamflows at the downstream monitoring station begin to fall outside of (below) the predicted range of flows at the 95% confidence interval, this will indicate that the streamflow relationship between the upstream and downstream stations, as established during the baseline data collection period, may have changed. If the streamflows at the lower monitoring station remain below the predicted range of flows as defined by the 95% confidence level for five (5) consecutive days, it will be assumed that the historic streamflow conditions have changed, possibly due to Applicant's underground mining activities. This loss will be attributed to the Bowie Spruce Stomp Diversion and the exchange will be initiated.