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4.2 <br />Initial Assessment of Adequacy of Facility for Flood Events .. .............................26 <br />4.2.1 Flood Events Evaluated ................................................ .............................26 <br />4.2.2 South Diversion Ditch ................................................... .............................26 <br />4.2.3 Drop Structure Inlet Acceleration Chute ...................... .............................27 <br />4.2.4 Flip Bucket and Plunge Basin ....................................... .............................27 <br />4.3 <br />Results of New Evaluations Performed as part of Detailed Dam Safety <br />Evaluation Process .................................................................... .............................27 <br />4.3.1 Hydrologic Check Analysis .......................................... .............................27 <br />4.3.2 HEC -RAS Modeling of South Diversion Ditch and Drop Structure ......... <br />29 <br />5.0 POTENTIAL FAILURE MODES ........................................................ .............................34 <br />5.1 <br />General Description Dam and Loading Conditions .................. .............................34 <br />5.1.1 Dam Data (elevations in NAVD 88) ............................. .............................34 <br />5.1.2 Hydrology Data ............................................................. .............................35 <br />5.1.3 Seismic Data ................................................................. .............................36 <br />5.2 <br />PFMA Process Summary .......................................................... .............................36 <br />5.3 <br />Potential Failure Modes ............................................................ .............................41 <br />5.3.1 PFM -1 Overtopping of Drop Structure at Left Dam Abutment <br />during Extreme Flood Event leading to Scour Erosion and Breach <br />ofDam .......................................................................... .............................41 <br />5.3.2 PFM -2 Internal Erosion or Piping of Embankment Materials <br />Exiting on Downstream Face of the Dam near the Under -drain <br />PipeOutlets ................................................................... .............................45 <br />5.4 <br />Potential Failure Modes Ruled Out (Category IV) ................... .............................48 <br />5.5 <br />Summary of Risk Estimates ...................................................... .............................51 <br />6.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................... .............................53 <br />6.1 <br />Overall Evaluation .................................................................... .............................53 <br />6.2 <br />Recommended Maintenance, Repairs, and Upgrades to Address current <br />conditions.................................................................................. .............................54 <br />6.2.1 Maintenance and Improvements to South Diversion Ditch .......................54 <br />6.2.2 Drainage Outlet Cleanout ............................................. .............................57 <br />6.2.3 Erosion Protection of Right Groin Area ....................... .............................58 <br />San Luis Project <br />Miller Geotechnical Consultants <br />Tailing Dam Data <br />Report iii February 2014 <br />