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<br />I Cj q i I~ L{U I t> I 0 r it[. <br /> <br />Ecolo$ical Applica/ions. 4(3), 1994, pp,544--554 <br /> <br />"'7?j/"? <br />... ,-' J <br /> <br />RELATING RIPARIAN VEGETATION TO PRESENT AND <br />FUTURE STREAMFLOWSl <br /> <br />t' <br /> <br />GREGOR T. AUBLE, JONATHAN M. FRIEDMAN, AND MICHAEL L. SCOTT <br />National Biological Survey, Fort Collins, Colorado 80525-3400 USA <br /> <br />( <br />I <br /> <br />Abstract. The intense demand for river water in arid regions is resulting in widespread <br />changes in riparian vegetation. We present a direct gradient method to predict the vegetation <br />change resulting from a proposed upstream dam or diversion. Our method begins with the <br />definition of vegetative cover types, based on a census of the existing vegetation in a set <br />of 1 x 2 m plots. A hydraulic model determines the discharge necessary to inundate each <br />plot. We use the hydrologic record, as defined by a flow duration curve, to determine the <br />inundation duration for each plot, This allows us to position cover types along a gradient <br />of inundation duration. A change in river management results in a new flow duration curve, <br />which is used to redistribute the cover types among the plots. Changes in vegetation are <br />expressed in terms of the area occupied by each cover type. <br />We applied this approach to riparian vegetation of the Black Canyon of the Gunnison <br />National Monument along the Gunnison River in Colorado. We used TWINS PAN to <br />cluster plots according to species occurrence. This analysis defined three vegetative cover <br />types that were distinct in terms of inundation duration. Quantitative changes in the extent <br />of cover types were estimated for three hypothetical flow regimes: two diversion alternatives <br />with different minimum flows and a moving average modification of historical flows. Our <br />results suggest that (I) it is possible to cause substantial changes in riparian vegetation <br />without changing mean annual flow, and (2) riparian vegetation is especially sensitive to <br />changes in minimum and maximum flows. <br />Principal advantages of this method are simplicity and reliance on relatively standard <br />elements of plant community ecology and hydrologic engineering, Limitations include use <br />of a single environmental gradient, restrictive assumptions about changes in channel ge- <br />ometry, representation of vegetation as quasi-equilibrium cover types, and the need for <br />model validation, <br /> <br />Key words: bottomland vegetation; dam; discharge; diversion; environmental impact;jlow duration; <br />Gunnison; hydraulic model; riparian vegetation; TWINSPAN; vegetation change. <br /> <br />4 <br /> <br />INTRODUCTION <br /> <br />Throughout the arid and semi-arid regions of west- <br />ern North America, riparian ecosystems are a con- <br />spicuous feature ofthe landscape. Riparian ecosystems <br />are spatially and temporally dynamic and are shaped <br />by fluvial as well as upland geomorphic processes. In <br />spite of their limited areal extent in the West, these <br />systems provide critical physical and biological link- <br />ages between terrestrial and aquatic environments <br />(Gregory et al. 1991) and support many vertebrate spe- <br />cies (Brinson et al. 1981). <br />Western riparian ecosystems have long been influ- <br />enced by human activities; widespread modification <br />began in the mid to late 1800s with diversion of stream- <br />flow primarily for inigated agriculture (Wilkinson 1988, <br />Knopf and Scott 1990). Subsequent trans-basin diver- <br />sion projects and instream dams for water storage and <br />flood control further altered riparian ecosystems (John- <br />son et al. 1976, Bradley and Smith 1986, Rood and <br />Mahoney 1990). With increasing municipal, industrial, <br /> <br />j <br /> <br />, Manuscript received 30 July 1992; revised 15 July 1993; <br />accepted 16 July 1993. <br /> <br />and recreational demands for western water and grow- <br />ing recognition of the resource values associated with <br />riparian ecosystems (Lamb and Lord 1992), arid-re- <br />gion rivers will be subject to further conflicts, and man- <br />agers will require quantitative predictions of ecosystem <br />responses to altered stream discharge. <br />Several approaches have been used to relate stream <br />discharge to riparian vegetation at individual sites. <br />Stromberg and Patten (1990, 1991) used a site-specific <br />regression between discharge and cottonwood growth <br />to establish a flow standard for minimum flow. Bovee <br />et al. (1978) and O'Keeffe and Davies (1991) estimated <br />evapotranspiration from phreatophytic riparian vege- <br />tation in order to include this "consumptive use" of <br />water in a multiple-use evaluation of streamflow. <br />Stromberg (1993) related abundance of riparian vege- <br />tation to growing-season flow for a number of streams <br />within a large watershed. Johnson (1992) developed a <br />compartmental simulation model of changes in ripar- <br />ian cover types from water development along the Mis- <br />souri River. Pearlstine et al. (1985) used an individual- <br />based dynamic simulation to assess changes in woody <br />riparian vegetation associated with hydrologic modi- <br />