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<br />I <br /> <br />M33U5 <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />TABLE OF CONTENTS <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />EXECUTIVE Sl.Jl1r1ARY................................................... i <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />1. <br /> <br />Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />Purpose. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . <br />Organization of report....................................... <br />Drought definition........................................... <br />Summary of procedures........................................ <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />II. Generation of Stochastic Record <br />and Selection of Typical Droughts.............................. <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />Calculation of historic annual virgin flows.................. <br />Cross-correlation of virgin flows............................ <br />Basic statistical analysis of annual virgin flows............ <br />Stochastic generation of long-term records......,............ <br />Comparisons to tree-ring results............................. <br />Determination of drought characteristics..................... <br />Determination of drought characteristics <br />for additional drought types................................. <br />Selection of typical l-in20, l-in-50, <br />l-in-l00, and l-in-500 droughts.............................. <br />Return frequency of historic droughts,....................... <br />Generation of annual imports to Poudre River basin........... <br />Generation of monthly data................................... <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />III. Simulation of Poudre River Water Supplies <br />and Impact of Droughts on City's Water Supply.................. <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />MODSIM modeL................................................ <br />Yields from C-BT system...................................... <br />System configuration for basin model......................... <br />Calibration of river basin modeL............................ <br />Results of river basin calibration........................... <br />Results of drought simulations 6sing basin model............. <br />System configuration for City network model.................. <br />Operating rules for the City network......................... <br />Input information to the City network model.................. <br />Operation scenarios.......................................... <br />Yield of individual water supplies........................... <br />Adequacy of present system................................... <br />Future supply analysis....................................... <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />IV. Water Supply Strategy.......................................... <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />General. .. . .. . . . . .. . . . . .. . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 <br />Drought design criteria...................................... .82 <br />Future system improvements................................... 83 <br />Need for emergency measures.................................. 84 <br />Emergency measures........................................... 85 <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />Pa~e <br /> <br />1 <br />1 <br />2 <br />4 <br /> <br />6 <br /> <br />6 <br />9 <br />14 <br />18 <br />18 <br />23 <br /> <br />27 <br /> <br />29 <br />35 <br />35 <br />38 <br /> <br />41 <br /> <br />41 <br />41 <br />45 <br />51 <br />53 <br />58 <br />63 <br />66 <br />66 <br />70 <br />75 <br />77 <br />78 <br /> <br />82 <br />