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<br />8-4 <br /> <br />aeal-time Adjustments in Releases <br /> <br />During actual real-time dispatching of releases, expected <br />purchases and sales must be adjusted to reflect conditions of <br />scheduled transmission line outages and critical transmission <br />line loadings, and to ensure that specific transmission contract <br />paths are being used. Western's dispatchers must be flexible to <br />adapt to real-time power system needs and uncertain conditions, <br />such as (a) economic market opportunities, (b) emergency <br />deliveries, (c) transmission overloads or contractual schedule <br />limits, (d) unscheduled customer deviations from power schedules, <br />and (e) changes in forecasted reservoir operations, unit <br />availability, and powerplant constraints. These conditions may <br />make it economically beneficial to try to buy or sell more or <br />less power than anticipated. Also, when adjacent utilities lose <br />resources due to forced outages or maintenance requirements, they <br />may seek emergency assistance from the Federal systems which was <br />unanticipated. <br /> <br />Transmission overloads or contractual schedule limits may <br />restrict planned resource exchanges. Mid-month changes in water <br />release volumes due to changes in forecasted runoff affects the <br />water resources available. Such changes may require disposing of <br />more or less hydropower energy. These all may alter the <br />anticipated Federal energy available for load or marketing on a <br />real-time basis and limit the capability of optimally using <br />hydropower. <br /> <br />Factors Which Affect Kaxt.wa a.leases <br /> <br />Glen Canyon powerplant release constraints are key components of <br />the Interim Flow restrictions. The absolute limits of 5,000 and <br />20,000 cfs have particular importance to aquatic and sediment <br />resources. The extent of daily fluctuations affect all <br />downstream resources. <br /> <br />The frequency that releases exceed a certain flow are tied <br />directly to the monthly release volume and peak energy demands. <br />Historic operating practices under the constrains of Interim <br />Flows have shown that peak releases do not reach 20,000 cfs <br />unless the monthly release volume is at least 900,000 AF (daily <br />average of 15,000 cfs). This is intuitive since the maximum <br />allowable daily fluctuation of 8,000 cfs effectively limits the <br />departure from the daily average. The uncertainties of power <br />system load, purchase cost and availability, and transmission <br />capability have historically tended to keep generation from <br />strictly matching loads. Therefore, maxUnuffi releases are fairly <br />predictable, largely a function of average daily release and <br />allowable daily fluctuations. Variance from this equation <br />largely results from the uncertainties cited earlier. <br />