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<br />C'.J <br />C'J <br />co <br /> <br />Analyses were conducted to develop a demand forecasting plan which would provide a way to <br /> <br /> <br />: estimate crop demands in an average, wet, or dry precipitation year. A revised system <br /> <br /> <br />operating plan which incorporates the ability to track water by account and carry-over storage <br /> <br /> <br />from year to year was developed and tested through the use of a computer model. In addition, <br /> <br /> <br />options for a water marketing mechanism which would facilitate sale and leasing of irrigation <br /> <br />water and reservoir space were presented. <br /> <br />The analyses conducted supply the ditch companies with information, procedures, and tools <br /> <br />which could be used to assist in changing system operations to provide an increased water <br /> <br /> <br />supply throughout the irrigation season. However, the supply/demand conditions in the study <br /> <br /> <br />area show clearly that the supply of irrigation water is inadequate to provide a full season <br /> <br /> <br />supply to all the acreage traditionally in production. An integral part of any revised operation <br /> <br /> <br />plan is improvement to the methods used to estimate actual crop water requirements and <br /> <br />schedule irrigations so that the right amount of water can be supplied at the most beneficial <br /> <br /> <br />time. Individual operators may also want to re-evaluate the amount of acreage in production to <br /> <br />determine the optimum acreage which can receive a full season supply. <br /> <br />The utility of the demand-based operation model does not end with the analyses performed to <br /> <br /> <br />date. The demand-based operation model could also be used in future seasons to provide <br /> <br />evaluations of water supply conditions on a parcel-by-parcel basis in the service area as was <br /> <br />done for the t990 season. Evaluations performed using forecasts made in February and March <br /> <br />prior to the initiation of the irrigation season could provide valuable information for long range <br /> <br />planning. Evaluations performed with updated forecasts as the season progresses could <br />provide guidance on making adjustments in individual operations. Further analyses using the <br />historic records could be performed to provide information to individual operators which would <br />allow optimal acreages to be determined or the impact of revised cropping patterns or <br />application methods to be evaluated. <br /> <br />14 <br />