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82 4029 RUEDI DAM AND RESERVOIR, COLO. -I I production will be limited ollly by the ability of the illdustry to ex- pam1. The [.-year period followillg phase III should see an illcrease of shale oiI'product.ion to about. 1% million barrels per day. This is thought, to be t.he maximum rate a.t w'hieh the industl'~' can grow with normlll economic incentives. The effect of sonH~ natIOnal emergency which might accelerate growt.h is not considered. The phase IV expansion will require an investment in the range of $5 billioll~ not. including cOJlllllUnity facilitiesl supporting indust.ry and other improvemellts. An IldditiOlmlllopuhLtion of about 300,000 will be needed. The Chase Manhatt.an Bank (43) has est.imat.ed that pet.roleum industry expenditures for exploration and production in the United States for the period 19(11-05 will be $27.5 billion. The investment of $5 billion dllring a 5-year period for shale oil produetion beilit.ies does not. seem unreasonable. The Parachute-Roan Creek area and the main stem of the Colorado River between Rifle and De Beque will eont.inue to be the center of aetivit.ies and most of the produetion during phase IV will be from shale outcrops along the river and tributary streams; however, pro- duction of oil from t.he deep shales in the Piceance Creek urea t.o the nort.h and from t.he shales in nort.heastern Utah should begin. Total produetion from the"". new areas nmy be 200,000 harrels per day. The largest market. for shale oil will cont.inue to be the Paeific Coast. Petroleum demand in the five States comprising t.he west coast area is growing more ra:pidJy than the country as a. -whole, and (lomestie j,roduct.ion already IS in decline. By 1975 demand may reaeh 3 mil- ion barrels per day (21). In 1958, California production, the only west con..st State with significant. oil reserves, was less than 1 million barrels pe.rday (38). The Paeifie Coast oil deficit, now 375,000 barrels per day (38) is supplied by oversea imports, and oil pipelined from Canada and the Rocky Mountain area. By 1975, when 2 million barrels per day of outside supply will be required, it. scerns likely that a shale oil market exceeding' !JOO,OOO ba.n-els per day will exist.. The other major market for shale oil from phase IV probably will be in tI,e :\fiddle "'est. Petroleum and petroleum products now come to this area, largely by pipeline. from Texas, Oklahoma, t.he Roeky ~Ionnt<1in area, and Canad~t. Production in the area is small com- parer[ wit.h demand. The out.put of a 1,200-mile, 500,000-ba.rrel-pcr- day shale oil pipeline to the Chieago area should be easily absorbed 10 or 15 years from now. Local demand for shale oil produds will have inereased several-fold on account. of the increase in population and the level of industrial act.ivity. This demand will be in the range of 50,000 barre.ls per day. We nntic.ipate significant. changes in t.he technology as a. conse- queuce of phases II and III. The. me.thods used for phase IV pro- dud.ion will require less investment per unit of production, will make better lIse of t.he raw material, gi'dng hi!!her yields of superior prod~ uets and, most likely, will utiliie the~lo,,:-er ,grade shale..s not now COIl- sidered economical. However, the proba.bility of using in situ com- bust.ion. atomic explosions or some ot.her revolutionary Inethod during t.his period seems remote. .,