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<br />36 <br /> <br />Estimate of next year' s water supply Any priority operation requires an <br /> <br />estimate of the future water supply. Usually the estimate will be for one year I s <br /> <br />supply. The erratic rainfall pattern in the Rio Grande basin makes an estimate <br /> <br />here extremely risky. The best estimate would be the amount of water in storage <br /> <br />on, sa,j, January 1, plus the minimum annual flow of record. <br /> <br />The irrigation and weather pattern points to a January-December year as bein~ <br /> <br />the most practical for computation purposes. <br /> <br />Waste of water <br /> <br />Limiting users to a certain amount of water that must be <br /> <br />used during the year, or will be put back in the pool, may encourage waste of <br /> <br />water towards the end of the year by those having considerable wate~ in storage. <br /> <br />This situation could be avoided by allowing a carry over into the next year of <br /> <br />balances not used in current year. If this is allowed, consideration should be <br /> <br />given to reducing the carry over balances some amount to compensate for extra <br /> <br />evaporation losses due to water remaining in storage for an WluSually long time. <br /> <br />Specific solutions Two specific proposals have been made for the physical <br /> <br />solution of the problem. One, submitted by the "Senior Six" districts, involves <br /> <br />a straight priority approach, and the other, submitted by the state, proposes <br /> <br />straight allocation until a shortage is predicted, then op~rate on priorities. <br /> <br />These methods are not discussed in this paper, <br /> <br />Sunnnary <br /> <br />Several methods for distributing water can be adopted. The best for <br /> <br />over all Valley econoll\Y probably would be allocation of limited amnunt to a limited <br /> <br />number of acres on an equal per acre basis, or make a base allotment of given <br /> <br />amounts, varying according to classes of land (priorities), and allot additional <br /> <br />water as it accrues. All allotments should be made monthly of water actiUally in <br /> <br />storage; estimates of future quantities, if made, should be conservative, and <br /> <br />should not exceed storage at beginning of year plus minimum yearly flow of record. <br /> <br />Any practical solution of the Valley water problem will, of necessity, involve <br /> <br />taking the risk that the desired amount of water required annually sometimes will <br /> <br />, . <br />0';':. "". ~ .", <br />.....(,..'-r..L.... <br />