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~li ':,j ~{t<1 ,-,--, An Overview of the Basin's Resource-Management Problems :J;, Within the past decade or so, at least some of the edges ofthe ecosystem's carrying capacity have become more clear. For example: ~-. a. The Risk of Drought.-The Basin experienced an extremely low snowpack in the upper elevations during the 1995-96 winter. This caused widespread consternation throughout the Basin and reminded residents that there always is a substantial risk that the Basin will experience drought. Detailed weather records from the past several decades as well as the general historical record from the mid-seventeenth century indicate that the area experiences a major drought every 20 to 25 years (Finch and Tainter 1995a). The Basin previously had not seen drought conditions for about 15 years, and it has not seen a prolonged period with consecutive years of drought since the 1950s. Given the high rate of immigration, a substantial portion of the current population has no memory of earlier droughts in the area. '":_;i .':.1. ,,:, ~1 \., ,;'; b. Unsustainable Use of Groundwater.-Nearly all urban uses of water rely on groundwater. The Basin's two major metropolitan areas, the Albuquerque area (population about 650,000) and the EI Paso-Ciudad Juarez area (more than 2 million), have bumped against the limits of the supply of readily accessible, potable groundwater. Residents of each area once believed they sat atop an aquifer holding an amount of water roughly equal to one ofthe Great Lakes. Accordingly, each area pumped water, built houses, and grew an economy as though, despite living in a desert, water was not scarce. In the past decade, however, each area has realized that the amount of readily available, potable groundwater is much smaller than previously expected and that it has been overdrafting the aquifer for decades. For some of Albuquerque's wells the water table dropped more than 150 feet during the past 30 years. If mining of the groundwater continues at recent rates, the supplies of water available with low pumping and treatment costs would be exhausted within a few decades. :~-: , . I > 1'_'- ~ ;,;: I. ! . Although Albuquerque and Ciudad Juarez continue to obtain water solely from the aquifer, EI Paso now draws about 40 percent of its water from the aquifer. EI Paso and Albuquerque have embarked on campaigns to encourage water conservation and are developing plans that include substituting surface water for groundwater (City of Albuquerque Public Works Department 1996; Rebuck 1993). EI Paso also has initiated desalination projects to derive drinking water from groundwater with a high salt content. r - ""9'~'" ,.: -F ~...i , ..11.. 73