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<br /> <br />city and County Population projections <br /> <br />Projections for individual cities and rural areas were made using <br />a log-linear regression of each area's historical population from <br />1960 to 19800 Cities and unincorporated areas in each county <br />were totalled to provide uncontrolled county totals: the totals <br />of all counties were them summed and compared to the state <br />control total for the projection year. Cities and rural areas <br />were then constrained within the projected state total in an <br />interactive process by successively dampening individual growth <br />rates by one-tenth increments. This interactive constraint <br />process does not provide for exact control to the projected state <br />totalo The final Southwestern Division most probable projections <br />deviate from (are lower than) OBERS by about three percent in <br />1990. but the deviation declines to less than 0.1 percent by <br />20300 County population estimates and projections for 1984. <br />2000. 2020 and 2040 are shown in Table 8. <br /> <br />Many cities in Kansas annexed territory and population between <br />1960 and 1970. and/or between 1970 and 1980. causing aberrant <br />growth rateso In these cases. regression estimates were computed <br />using census population from 1940 to the census prior to the <br />annexation. The longer term growth rate was compared to the rate <br />between the two most recent censuses without annexation activity. <br />If the direction was the same. the longer term growth rate was <br />used to project future population. If the direction was <br />opposite. the rate between the two most recent census dates were <br />usedo <br /> <br />Military installation closin~s also cause misleading rates of <br />population declines and such instances were handled the same as <br />annexationo Also. populations of existing military census were <br />held constant throughout the projection period. Similarly. in <br />counties where university students are a major part of county <br />population. the college group quarters population. was held <br />constanto Because of the large increase in university <br />enrollments between 1960 and 1970. the procedure used for <br />selecting a future growth rate WaS the same as for annexationo <br />Growth rates for recently incorporated cities were measured as <br />the 1970 to 1980 change. if available. or the 1980 to 1982 change <br />estimated by the U.So Census. <br /> <br />30 <br />