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~:J]) generated by multiplying each sector's 1970 dollar value by that sector's estimated price increase over the 1970-1978 period. A more detai led discussion of these values for major categories of sectors is presented below. A~riculture The agricu lture see tors of the mode 1 are: Range Livestock, Dairy, Food and Field Crops, All Other Agriculture and Forestry. The total gross output estimates for 1975 for the first four of these sectors .tIJu. were made from output and sales data compiled from^1975 Census of Agriculture (1974 crop year) and the 1974, 1975 and 1976 Agricultural Statistics publications of Colorado, .v-r.1.~L these TGOAwere New Mexico, Wyoming and Utah. The various components of converted to 1970 dollar values, then summed and used in conjunction with the UCRB Optimization Model to get final demand estimates for 1975 in 1970 dollars. The TGOs and FDs estimated for the first four agricultural sectors in this way were, in most cases, lower than the mean of 1970 and 1980 estimates found in Udis, Howe and Krieder; and Morris. It is difficult to make a general statement regarding the combination of cyclical and secular trends which account for the reduction in the rate of growth in output of these see tors. Performance over the 1970-1975 period varied significantly from region to region, sector to sector, and crop to crop. The best one can say is that the previous forecasts of growth in agricultural output in the UCRB appear to have been over~optimistic. / One particular note which should be made has to do with the negative final demand forecast for the Dairy Sector of the San Juan Region. This estimate was allowed to stand because it did not seem too unreasonable and it highlights one of the dynamic features of overall Basin growth which will be discussed again in Chapter Iv. As a regional economy grows, local markets for