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<br />L'JJJ <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Basic Estimates of the 1971 Plan <br /> <br />Reservoir Inflow <br /> <br />Ruedi Reservoir <br /> <br />Inflow to Ruedi Reservoir was considered to be the historic flow of the <br />Fryingpan River at Ruedi, Colo. Records are available at this station <br />for October 1959 through September 1964. No correction was made for <br />Busk-Ivtmhoe diversions above the gage as these diversions should be <br />of the same pattern tUld mab'TIitude during the runoff season for which <br />discharge is being predicted. For w1lter years 1965 through May 1968, <br />discharge at the gaging station on the Fryingpan River near Ruedi, Colo., <br />was corrected for Rocky Forl, flow and used as Fryingpan River flow at <br />Ruedi, Colo. Rocky Fork flow was estimated from spot measurements. <br />After May 1968, when storage began at Ruedi Reservoir, the actual <br />inflow computed from measured outflow and change in storage was used. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Using historical data, a probability curve for Ruedi inflow was computed <br />by the modified California method and is shown graphically on exhibit 1. <br />Annual inflow of a magnitude equaled or exceeded 50 percent of the time <br />was considered the most probable inflow, that with a 90 percent chance <br />of being equaled or exceeded was considered to be the reasonable minimum, <br />and that with only a 10 percent chance of being equaled or exceeded was <br />considered the reasonable maximum. The October through March inflow <br />was distributed according to the average 1960 through 1969 distribution <br />pattern for this period. After October through March inflow was sub- <br />tracted, the remainder was distributed between the months of April <br />through September according to a distribution pattern of the years 1962, <br />1964, ruld 1955 that fell near the 10, 50, and 90 percent chrulCe points, <br />respectively. <br /> <br />Storable inflow was considered to be the inflow less bypass for the <br />protection of recreational values, including fishing on the Fryingpan <br />River below Ruedi Reservoir. <br /> <br />Because the collection system may be in operation during May, June, <br />and July, inflow to Ruedi was reduced by estimated diversions to the <br />Arkansas River Basin. Three points of diversion may be in operation in <br />the spring of 1971; Chapman Gulch, South Fork, 1Uld the Fryingpan River <br />below Marten Creek. Estimates of these diversions were made using <br />diversion data for May, June, and July from the Western Slope Operation <br />Study and probability illlaIysis. The 10, 50, and 90 percent chance values <br />were obtained from the probability curve shown on exhibit 2 and are <br />considered to represent the reasonable minimum, most probable, and <br />reasonable maximum three months diversions, respectively. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />8 <br />