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002588 I' I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Plan of Study 20 SUB-TASK 2b: Comorehensive Review of Water Demand Estimates Purpose The purpose of this sub-task is to develop a more thorough review of near-term and long-term water demand estimates by location. This review will consider the discussions and input obtained from the TSC and PAG in Sub-task 1a. These estimates will further assist the engineering staff in screening and sizing potential sites in Sub-task 3b. This more comprehensive review will be used by the TSC and PAG in defining the final water demand estimates to be used in Tasks 6 and 7. Approach 1) Comments and input from the TSC and PAG will be used to define definitions and assumptions to be used in the review of demand projections. These definitions and assumptions will specify the spatial, temporal and sectoral disaggregation required, the demand parameters that must be included (consumptive use, diversions, peak use), and the planning horizon for near-term demands. These assumptions would then be reviewed by the TSC. 2) Secondary data on current water use in the region will be obtained to assist in verifYing water use projections. This data is available in the USGS Water Use and Information Program, in the Census of Manufacturers, and other sources. 3) Experts in the region will be contacted using personal references and published sources such as the Directory of Manufacturers, the Directory of Municipal Officials produced by the Colorado Municipal League, and the Northwest Colorado Council of Governments. A trip to the region for organized interviews will be scheduled as warranted. 4) Additional secondary projections of economic growth, population and water demands will be obtained and reviewed, and additional information will be developed on current trends in quantity and location of water use. 5) Water demand projections will be verified by use of information from several sources. Underlying assumptions often include such factors as projected populations, industrial activity, recreation, and growth in irrigated acreage. Updated projections of these types of variables will beobtalned from the State Demographers Office (population), the Business Outlook Forum (economic growth), and State Division of Employment and Manpower (employment), and other sources. 6) Near-term demand estimates associated with development plans to be implemented within the time horizon defined in step 1 will be compiled. Careful consideration will be given to existing Idle industrial and mining capacity, and potential for irrigation development. 7) If no secondary studies of long-term water demand are available or verifiable, regional experts will be queried regarding 'potentil!! agricultural, industrial, mineral and recreational growth in the region. Their opinions will be synthesized into a profile of future base economic activity. Economic multipliers and water use coefficients from existing studies of regional economic inter-relationships will then be used to estimate total water requirements for this profile of economic activity.